Ядерные испытания в КНДР способствуют усилению глобальной рискофобии

Ядерные испытания в КНДР способствуют усилению глобальной рискофобии
—Коул Эйксонстратег Sberbank Investment Research Испытание ядерного оружия Северной Кореей привело к ухудшению восприятия риска. Проходящий в Китае саммит стран БРИКСТ начался вчера не совсем так, как надеялся лидер принимающей стороны Си Цзиньпин: причиной стало испытание Северной Кореей ядерного оружия, которое, по словам Пхеньяна, представляет собой водородную бомбу для межконтинентальной баллистической ракеты (это станет серьезными шагом вперед в реализации национальной программы ядерного оружия).

Реакция мировых держав, таких как США и КНР, по-прежнему ограничивается дипломатической риторикой, однако на этот раз она стала заметно более жесткой, чем прежде (ранее нетипичной резкостью выделялось заявление Дональда Трампа, пообещавшего обрушить на КНДР «огонь и ярость» в том случае, если Пхеньян не перестанет угрожать Вашингтону). Между тем никаких конкретных действий предпринято не было.

Как и следовало ожидать, на азиатских рынках царит нервозность, и, скорее всего, это состояние распространится сегодня и на другие рынки. Ключевые фондовые индексы АТР снизились на 0,4-0,5%, за исключением китайского Shanghai Composite, который прибавил 0,3%, и южнокорейского KOSPI, упавшего на 1,7%. Фьючерсы на индекс S&P 500 подешевели на 0,3% и сегодня утром теряют в стоимости более 0,5%. Инвесторы явно отдают предпочтение защитным активам: так, спотовые цены на золото сегодня утром выросли на 0,7%.

С закрытия основной торговой сессии в пятницу в Москве баррель Брент подешевел на 0,5%, а рубль ослабел на 0,2%. Фьючерсы на Индекс РТС завершили пятничные торги ростом на 0,3%. Несмотря на такую динамику фьючерсных контрактов, мы ожидаем, что торги по Индексу РТС сегодня утром начнутся снижением.

Календарь событий этой недели. Американские рынки сегодня закрыты в связи с празднованием Дня труда; большинство ближневосточных бирж также ушли на праздничные выходные. Саммит стран БРИКСТ продлится до завтрашнего дня: сегодня должна завершиться серия переговоров о соглашении НАФТА. Объем публикуемой сегодня макростатистики невелик: ожидаются индекс деловой активности PMI в строительстве в Великобритании и ИЦП еврозоны. Окончательные индексы PMI за август начнут выходить сегодня ночью: до начала завтрашних торгов в Москве отчитаются Япония, Китай и Россия.

Главным событием недели станет запланированное на четверг заседание ЕЦБ. Впрочем, ожидания инвесторов в отношении этого события становятся все менее масштабными: согласно консенсус-оценке, глава европейского регулятора Марио Драги вряд ли представит конкретные планы относительно программы количественного смягчения. 

Также особого внимания заслуживают комментарии, исходящие от администрации Дональда Трампа (в частности, от главы Минфина Стивена Мнучина), согласно которым Конгрессу США следует включить повышение предельно допустимого объема госдолга в список законодательных инициатив, подлежащих незамедлительному рассмотрению (главная причина такого шага — реализация программы по преодолению последствий урагана «Харви»). И хотя «потолок» госдолга, скорее всего, будет повышен, рынки, вероятно, воспримут это положительно — как сигнал устранения неопределенности.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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