Восстановление экономики РФ требует роста импорта

— Аналитики Райффайзенбанка В перспективе мы ожидаем, что рост физических объемов импорта продолжится по мере плавного выхода экономики из рецессии.

По данным ФТС, импорт из стран дальнего зарубежья в апреле продолжил набирать обороты в стоимостном (долл. США) выражении – как г./г. (21% г./г. против 18% г./г. в марте), так и м./м. (3,3% м./м. против 1,6% м./м. в марте с учетом сезонности). Среди факторов, поддерживающих рост спроса на зарубежную продукцию – стабильно крепкий курс рубля (укрепившийся в среднем на 2,4% м./м. в апреле) и постепенное (хотя и медленное) восстановление внутреннего спроса. Так, например, оборот розничной торговли в продовольственном сегменте за 1 кв. 2017 г. вырос на 8,8% кв./кв. (в долл., с учетом сезонности), а индекс физического объема достиг роста в 1,8% кв./кв. с учетом сезонности. Скорее всего, подобные тенденции сохранились и в апреле, что в целом поддерживает импорт продуктов питания: в апреле он продолжил увеличиваться (8% г./г. и 2% м./м. против 12% г./г. и 0,9% м./м. в марте).

Восстановление постепенно происходит и в непродовольственном сегменте потребительских расходов (10% кв./кв. в долл., с учетом сезонности), благодаря чему импорт потребительских товаров химической (косметика, моющие средства, лекарства) и текстильной отраслей (одежда и обувь) вырос с начала года на 3-8% с учетом сезонности. Годовая динамика импорта химической (9% г./г.) и текстильной (16% г./г.) продукции продолжает оставаться позитивной, но рост м./м. пока остается достаточно волатильным. Так, импорт химической продукции все же показал падение м./м. (-2,7% м./м.) после роста в марте (4,6% м./м.). Кроме того, импорт инвестиционных товаров (главным образом продукции машиностроения) ускорил рост до 29% г./г. в апреле (20% г./г. в марте). Месячная динамика также оказалась позитивной (8,8% м./м. против 0,9% м./м. в марте). Однако волатильность динамики импорта в этом сегменте остается высокой, т.к. пока восстановление инвестиционного спроса остается неустойчивым.

В перспективе мы ожидаем, что рост физических объемов импорта продолжится по мере плавного выхода экономики из рецессии. Впрочем, негативно повлиять на динамику стоимостных объемов может умеренное ослабление рубля, которое предполагает наш базовый сценарий. 

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Источник: 1prime.ru

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