Внешний долг банковского сектора снизился до $107 млрд: негативно

Внешний долг банковского сектора снизился до $107 млрд: негативно
—Наталия Орловаглавный экономист Альфа-банка ЦБ представил предварительную статистику по внешнему долгу России – корпоративный внешний долг (долг банков и компаний) сохранился на уровне $464 млрд, не изменившись с начала этого года.

Ранее мы говорили о том, что номинальные цифры маскируют сокращение внешних обязательств с учетом эффекта очистки от валютной переоценки в 1П17; в 3К17 данный тренд усилился — корпоративный внешний долг снизился на $9 млрд в 3К17, или на $11 млрд с начала года (с учетом валютной переоценки). С другой стороны, в отличие от 2014-2015 этот факт больше не свидетельствует о снижении долга в реальном секторе.

Внешний долг компаний не изменился в 3К17, но их слабый спрос на кредиты, по сути, заставил российские банки снизить свои внешние обязательства. Сокращение внешних обязательств банковского сектора может быть связано и с недавним возможным выходом инвесторов из облигаций крупных частных банков, испытывающих в последние месяцы трудности, и соответствует сильному ускорению чистого отток капитала из России в сентябре этого года.

В целом складывается впечатление, что сейчас сочетание сильного притока депозитов и слабого спроса на кредиты в отличие от периода до 2014 г. будет поддерживать сокращение аппетита российских банков к внешним заимствованиям в ближайшем будущем.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

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