В новом году реальные зарплаты россиян вырастут, а отток капитала сократится

В новом году реальные зарплаты россиян вырастут, а отток капитала сократится
—Опрос Reuters 

По результатам недавнего опроса Reuters, инфляционные ожидания аналитиков на конец 2017 года не изменились по сравнению с предыдущим опросом, стабилизировавшись на уровне 4,9%. В то же время эксперты существенно повысили оценку роста реальных зарплат, незначительно улучшили прогноз ВВП и поделились ожиданиями снижения ключевой ставки уже в первом квартале 2017 года. В опросе принимали участие экономисты 17 крупнейших российских и международных компаний и банков. 

ВВП, инфляция, заработная плата

Консенсус-прогноз динамики ВВП РФ на 2017 был немного повышен опрошенными Reuters аналитиками — до 1,2 с 1,1%. В это же время ЦБР ожидает рост объема ВВП в 2017 году менее 1%. 

Медианный прогноз инфляции в РФ на конец текущего года со времени предыдущего опроса снизился до 5,7 с 5,8% в годовом выражении. ЦБ ожидает итоговый показатель в 4% по итогам 2017 года. Однако опрошенные Reuters экономисты не разделяют оптимизма регулятора. Консенсус-прогноз инфляции на конец 2017 года не изменился и остается на уровне 4,9%.

Аналитики улучшили прогнозы в отношении динамики реальных зарплат и по итогам 2017 года ждут роста на 1,8%, при этом месяц назад эксперты прогнозировали повышение на 1,4%. Реальная заработная плата в РФ в ноябре выросла на 1,7% к ноябрю 2015 года, оказавшись хуже консенсус-прогноза аналитиков в 2,2%.

Ключевая ставка, валюта, капитал

Экономисты, опрошенные Reuters, предполагают, что ключевая ставка будет снижена в первом квартале 2017 на 50 базисных пунктов — до 9,5% годовых, несмотря на то, что глава Банка России Эльвира Набиуллина называла более вероятным снижение ставки во втором квартале этого года. 

Что касается курса рубля, аналитики видят его на отметке 61,8 рубля за доллар через три месяца и 60,9 рубля — через 12 месяцев.

Участники опроса Reuters оптимистично настроены в отношении динамики оттока капитала. В ходе ноябрьского опроса медианный прогноз оттока на конец 2016 года составлял $27,5 миллиарда, в декабре 2016 прогноз был улучшен до $17,6 миллиарда. На 2017 год медианный прогноз экономистов в отношении оттока капитала был скорректирован до $20 миллиардов с $35 миллиардов.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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