Укрепление рубля несет риски для восстановления экономики

Укрепление рубля несет риски для восстановления экономики
—Алексей Девятовглавный аналитик ФК «Уралсиб» 

Данные счета использования ВВП свидетельствуют – рост российской экономики в 4 кв. 2016 г. преимущественно объясняется увеличением экспорта и запасов на фоне слабого внутреннего спроса. В то же время данные ФТС явно указывают на то, что в значительной мере рост обеспечивается благодаря увеличению ненефтегазового экспорта (сельскохозяйственное сырье и продовольствие, продукция легкой промышленности и др.). В этой ситуации одним из ключевых факторов, влияющих на темпы роста экономики, является курс рубля. Мы считаем, что на фоне относительно стабильных нефтяных цен укрепление рубля в значительной мере обусловлено притоком средств нерезидентов в рублевые активы.

В этой связи мы полагаем, что снижение ключевой ставки ЦБ 24 марта было шагом в правильном направлении, поскольку более низкие ставки будут способствовать уменьшению притока средств нерезидентов в среднесрочной перспективе. Однако, поскольку рост курса рубля может негативно отразиться на темпах роста экономики в самое ближайшее время, мы допускаем, что Банк России может задействовать дополнительные инструменты (включая интервенции на валютном рынке) с целью предотвращения чрезмерного укрепления российской валюты. В настоящее время мы подтверждаем наш прогноз по росту ВВП на 1,9% в текущем году, но видим риски, что фактический результат окажется немного ниже.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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