Теханализ: Московская биржа

Теханализ: Московская биржа
—Алексей Гришинтехнический аналитик ИФК «Солид» 

Теханализ: Московская биржаMOEX

Бумага начала расти в начале 2015 г. после пробоя 70 р. До этого торговля шла в боковом диапазоне 50 – 70 р. К концу 2015 г. обозначились границы растущего канала. В августе этого года цена выходит за рамки верхней границы, но  не может пройти 130 р. Интенсивная коррекция доходит до 110 р. На этом уровне была поддержка летом, и здесь проходит зона нижней границы растущего канала. Быки сделали отскок, развили рост и обновили максимум в районе 140 р. Началась коррекция, которая вполне может дойти до 120 р. Примерно в этой зоне проходит нижняя граница канала.

Растущий канал от ноября сумел пройти сильное сопротивление в районе 130 р. Импульсный пробой с ретестом сверху. Затем обновили максимум цены. Коррекция, начатая в конце января, к настоящему моменту вывела бумагу из растущего канала. Пробили важную поддержку на 130 р. Теперь этот уровень может опять начать работать сопротивлением. Сейчас есть локальная поддержка на 125 р. Если ее пробьют, то бумага может снизиться еще на 5 рублей. В случае отскока могут быть трудности с преодолением 130 р.

Трендовое снижение первой половины текущего месяца. Есть поддержка в районе 126 р. На данный момент видится консолидация в форме «бриллианта». Часто это — разворотная модель. Но это случится, если бумага пройдет 128 р. вверх. При дальнейшем снижении почти сразу появляется 125 р., где может быть среднесрочная поддержка.

Торговая идея: «Алроса»ALRS

Бумага растет от 70 р. после длительного боковика. Долго не могли пройти 100 р. Когда это удалось, цена поднялась до 108 р. На этом уровне небольшая «голова и плечи» разрешается  вниз, и цена снижается до линии растущего тренда. В начале прошлой недели тренд пробивают с проходом вниз через 100 р. Поддержка появляется на уровне 98 р. От нее цена отскакивает, возвращаясь выше 100 р. Однако быки не могут развить рост. На прошлых торгах медведи опять загоняют бумагу ниже 100 р. То есть, пока возврат обратно выше 100 р. выглядит ложным. В рамках торговли этого года вырисовывается поддержка на 98 р. с конфигурацией вершин, подходящих под форму «голова и плечи», только в широком формате. Формально, цена вышла из растущего тренда, и если будет пробита поддержка 98 р., то может активироваться новая волна снижения. Мы не рекомендуем открывать позицию с начала торгов.

Торговый план открытия короткой позиции:

1. Продажа в зоне 97,4 р.,

2. Тейк-профит:  зона 90 р. и ниже. Для защиты прибыли целесообразно использование скользящих стопов,

3. Стоп-лосс: 100,7 р. 

4. Сигнал действителен, пока цена находится ниже уровня 101 р.

 

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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