СМИ: Британские выборы имеют большое значение для финансовых рынков

СМИ: Британские выборы имеют большое значение для финансовых рынков
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МОСКВА, 8 июн — ПРАЙМ. Согласно проведенному Wall Street Journal анализу шести последних национальных выборов в Великобритании за прошедшие 25 лет, каждый раз после неожиданного исхода британский фунт и ключевой индекс FTSE 100 резко сдвигались в ту или другую сторону. В основном это связано с тем, что до выборов опросы рисовали неверную картину, сообщает Dow Jones.

С тех пор, как опросы не смогли предсказать исход голосования о выходе Великобритании из ЕС и избрание Дональда Трампа в прошлом году, инвесторы обращают все больше внимания на их точность. Однако в Великобритании такое происходит не в первый раз.

Согласно данным PollBase, перед выборами 1992 года большинство специалистов по опросам общественного мнения утверждали, что Консервативная партия, которую тогда возглавлял Джон Мейджор, немного отстает от лейбористов. Мейджор с легкостью победил на тех выборах, получив самое большое количество голосов за всю историю британских выборов. Инвесторы с радостью восприняли эти новости, и на следующий день индекс FTSE 100 подскочил на 5,6%, а фунт укрепился к доллару на 1,4%.

В свою очередь, рынки едва сдвинулись с места, когда Лейбористская партия Тони Блэра с комфортным отрывом победила на выборах в 1997, 2001 и 2005 годах. Опросы показывали, что Блэр получит значительное большинство. После каждого из этих трех голосований FTSE 100 набирал менее 0,5%, а фунт снижался на 0,6% или меньше.

В 2010 году опросы показывали, что консерваторы получат большинство мест в парламенте, однако этого не произошло, и впервые за 25 лет ни одна из британских партий не добилась большинства. В связи с этим Консервативная партия и Либеральные демократы сформировали коалиционное правительство. Инвесторы очень не любят неопределенность – на следующий день после выборов индекс FTSE 100 упал на 2,6%, а фунт потерял почти 2%.

Опросы вновь оказались неверными и перед выборами 2015 года. Согласно опросам, лейбористы должны были идти практически вровень с консерваторами, однако на выборах победил премьер-министр Дэвид Кэмерон, член Консервативной партии, получив в парламенте на 17 мест больше. Через день после этого лондонский FTSE 100 вырос более чем на 2%, а фунт повысился на 1,5%.

В последние недели отрыв консерваторов по результатам опросов общественного мнения резко сократился. В середине апреля некоторые опросы давали Консервативной партии отрыв свыше 20 пунктов. Сейчас, по данным Wall Street Journal, этот отрыв в среднем составляет 8 пунктов. Этого должно быть достаточно для комфортной победы Терезы Мэй.

Но учитывая сомнительную историю опросов общественного мнения, инвесторам стоит подготовиться к резким колебаниям рынков вверх или вниз, если сегодня вечером выборы преподнесут очередной сюрприз.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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