Сентябрьский трамплин для нефти

Сентябрьский трамплин для нефти
—Наталья Мильчаковазамдиректора аналитического департамента «Альпари» В августе цена нефти смеси Brent сильно не менялась и колебалась вокруг уровня $51 за баррель.

Тем не менее благодаря нестабильному геополитическому фону и неоднозначным новостям из ОПЕК на нефтяном рынке случались сильные внутридневные колебания. Нефть Brent в августе достигала уровня в $53 за баррель, но максимумы начала года пока не были обновлены. Чего же ждать от нефтяного рынка в сентябре?

Мы считаем, что в сентябре нефтяной рынок будет колебаться под влиянием следующих событий.

Спрос на нефть в Китае сильно расти не будет

В августе две крупнейшие нефтяные компании Китая Sinopec и Petrochina объявили о сокращении мощностей своих НПЗ на 10%. Это вызвало сильную волатильность на нефтяном рынке в августе, а негатива добавил также и очередной прогноз Международного энергетического агентства о том, что спрос на нефть в 2017 году будет расти медленнее, чем предполагалось в начале года, и в первую очередь, потому, что спрос в странах Юго-Восточной Азии пока не слишком высок.

Не все страны-производители нефти сокращают добычу

В Нигерии и Ливии добыча нефти растет, хотя и с перебоями; также наращивает добычу Иран. Также продолжает расти и добыча сланцевой нефти в США, что отрицательно влияет на рост мирового спроса на нефть. Соглашение ОПЕК и независимых производителей нефти пока работает, коль скоро нефть не падает даже до $40 за баррель (среднегодовая цена нефти, заложенная в российском бюджете на 2017 год), однако, с учетом того, что цена нефти не может обновить даже максимумы начала года, заметно, что отдача от этого соглашения пока меньше, чем планировалось.

Политический и экономический кризис в Венесуэле далек от завершения

Кризис оказывает влияние на добычу нефти в этой стране, входящей в ОПЕК, она осуществляется с перебоями и падает. Кроме того, США могут ввести экономические санкции против Венесуэлы, которые могут также сказаться на ее нефтяной промышленности – ключевой отрасли экономики, что дополнительно приведет к сокращению добычи нефти в этой стране, а это уже «бычий» фактор для нефтяных цен. 

Сирийский конфликт близок к завершению

В августе министр обороны РФ Сергей Шойгу заявил, что гражданская война в Сирии завершилась. Мирный процесс восстановления порядка в Сирии может привести к тому, что ситуация в экономике этой страны постепенно начнет восстанавливаться, соответственно, будет восстанавливаться и спрос на топливо, и это тоже может привести к росту цены на нефть.                                                                                         

Мы ожидаем, что в сентябре нефть Brent может торговаться на уровнях в $49-55 за баррель, сильная волатильность котировок будет сохраняться.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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