Рубль в ближайшее время может потерять 3-5% от текущей стоимости

Рубль в ближайшее время может потерять 3-5% от текущей стоимости
—Денис Давыдованалитик Nordea Bank 

Накануне состоялось заседание ЕЦБ. И хотя М. Драги не преподнес большого сюрприза для рынков, намеки главы европейского регулятора на смещение позиций в сторону меньшей поддержки экономики ЕС от регулятора не заставили себя ждать – EURUSD торгуется у отметок 1.0613, практически отыграв тем самым недельное укрепление USD. 

Рубль продолжит испытывать на себе давление от снижения нефтяных цен и усиления позиций долларом США на глобальных площадках. Накануне цены на «черное золото» развили негативную динамику, достигнув трехмесячных минимумов. Вместе с тем, реакция российской валюты на динамику нефтяных цен пока выглядит достаточно сдержанной. Рубль удерживает позиции в паре с американским долларом ниже отметки в 60. Однако давление неизбежно будет нарастать с учетом того, что пессимистичные настроения на нефтяном рынке какое-то время продолжат преобладать. Так основной задачей ОПЕК на текущем этапе является сокращение уровня глобальных запасов. В этой связи картель постарается до последнего момента не давать информационного повода для дополнительной поддержки возрождающим производство американским сланцевикам.

Кроме того, несмотря на то, что решение по мартовскому заседанию ФРС уже в рынке, растущие доходности по американским гособлигациям могут спровоцировать дополнительный отток капитала из рисковых активов. По нашим оценкам, рубль в ближайшее время может потерять от 3 до 5% от текущей стоимости. Пока же уровни сопротивления видятся на отметках 59.60 и 60.00. Сегодня фокус на данных по рынку труда в США. Краткосрочные торговые ориентиры по USDRUB 59-60.

ДЕНЕЖНЫЙ РЫНОК

Ситуация на рынке практически не меняется. Краткосрочные рублевые ставки остаются в районе 9.75 — 10%, свопы на этих же уровнях. Недостатка ликвидности не наблюдается. На предстоящей неделе стартует мартовский период налоговых платежей. С учетом формирующейся динамики на валютном рынке не исключаем сдержанного роста ставок по рублевой ликвидности.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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