Рубль может усилить снижение к евро

Рубль может усилить снижение к евро
—Дмитрий Полевойглавный экономист ING Bank Несмотря на сохранение довольно благоприятной динамики на рынке нефти (Brent приближалась к US$47/брл против US$46/брл на начало дня), рубль во вторник показал снижение к USD на 1.2% — до 59.49.

Несмотря на то что мы допускали его укрепление до 58.50/USD, в целом вчерашняя динамика подтвердила наш среднесрочный взгляд об ограниченности потенциала укрепления рубля даже при повышении цен на нефть.

В части потоков с самого утра на рынке ощущался появившийся спрос на валюту, природу которого было сложно идентифицировать. Обороты торгов остались на уровне понедельника, т.е. были средними.

На внешних рынках, помимо роста цен на нефть, стоит отметить взрывной рост в паре EUR/USD (с 1.1180 до 1.1290 к концу дня) после выступления главы ЕЦБ Драги, напомнившего рынкам о возможности нормализации политики ЕЦБ, которая, по оценкам ING, не была заложена в котировки пары и по-прежнему не в полной мере отражена в котировках. Поэтому апсайд здесь сохраняется, что может дополнительно усиливать снижение рубля к евро при относительно стабильном USD/RUB.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

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