Рост ВВП России: провал в июле оказался временным

Рост ВВП России: провал в июле оказался временным
— Аналитики Райффайзенбанка По оценке Минэкономразвития, рост ВВП в августе составил 2,3% г./г. (после просадки до 1,8% г./г. в июле). Таким образом, с начала года (за 8М) рост экономики составил 1,7% г./г. По данным Министерства, в июле на экономику подействовал ряд негативных временных факторов, влияние которых в августе уже было исчерпано.

В частности, рост промышленного производства ускорился (на 0,4 п.п. до 1,5% г./г. в августе) благодаря восстановлению обрабатывающих отраслей (химия, пищевая промышленность, металлургия, машиностроение). В итоге общий вклад промышленности в рост экономики увеличился до 0,1 п.п. в ВВП (против -0,2 п.п. в июле). Также заметным оказался и рост вклада сельского хозяйства (0,4 п.п. к ВВП против-0,1 п.п. в июле) – к настоящему моменту урожай зерновых уже превысил объемы прошлого года (как за счет быстрых темпов сбора урожая, так и за счет повышения урожайности). По итогам года Министерство ожидает роста экономики на уровне 2,1% г./г.

В то же время мы полагаем, что к концу года высокие темпы роста 1П (достигнутые в основном за счет аномально высокого роста инвестиций) окажутся меньше, что может помешать столь активному росту ВВП. 

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163 комментария

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