Рост доходов у американцев по-прежнему не транслируется в расходы

Рост доходов у американцев по-прежнему не транслируется в расходы
— Аналитики Райффайзенбанка Опубликованная вчера макростатистика по США оказалась в некотором смысле разочаровывающей: в июле рост располагаемых доходов американских домохозяйств (+0,4% м./м.), обеспеченный в основном позитивной динамикой зарплат, лишь частично транслировался в потребительские расходы (они выросли на 0,3% м./м.), а базовая инфляция (по индексу PCE) составила всего +0,1% м./м. и +1,4% г./г.

Таким образом, несмотря на в целом благоприятные экономические условия, которые уже отражаются в повышении зарплат, американские потребители по-прежнему не готовы тратить. Учитывая, что значение индекса PCE, который продемонстрировал нисходящую динамику с начала этого года, остается заметно ниже цели ФРС на конец этого года (+1,7%), ключевая долларовая ставка может остаться на текущем уровне в течение длительного времени (участники рынка фьючерсов не ожидают ее повышения до марта следующего года).

Американские индексы акций прибавили 0,5%, доходность 10-летних UST осталась на уровне YTM 2,12% (против мин. этой недели YTM 2,08%). Сегодня интерес представляет отчет по американскому рынку труда за август, который может изменить ожидания по ключевой ставке (и вызвать некоторую коррекцию на финансовых рынках) в случае сильного роста payrolls с позитивной динамикой средних часовых зарплат (не ниже 0,3% м./м.). Евро подешевел до 1,188 долл. (катализатором послужила фиксация прибыли на отметке 1,2 долл.) на опасениях, что в ближайшее время М. Драги все-таки может высказаться против сильного евро.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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