Риски для валют EM частично реализовались

Риски для валют EM частично реализовались
—Михаил Поддубскийаналитик Промсвязьбанка За последние полторы недели состоялись, пожалуй, ключевые события сентября: прошло заседание Федрезерва и состоялось долгожданное представление проекта налоговой реформы в США. Насыщенный внешний фон также включает в себя и рост цен на нефть до максимальных уровней с 2015 г.

Однако пара доллар/рубль осталась примерно на тех же уровнях, что и до этих событий – район 58-58,50 руб/долл. Считаем, что диапазон в 57-59 руб/долл. сохраняет актуальность. В целом события второй половины сентября оказались умеренно негативными для всей группы валют развивающихся стран.

Валюты emerging markets остаются сильно скоррелированными между собой, что делает общее отношение глобальных инвесторов к долговым рынкам EM ключевым драйвером для рубля. При этом в ожидании представления налоговой реформы в США инвесторы старались действовать на опережение, и на текущий момент ключевые цели по большинству активов достигнуты, в связи с чем на ближайшие пару недель мы предполагаем консолидацию по большинству активов вблизи текущих уровней.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

166 комментариев

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