Протокол ЕЦБ сыграл против евро

Протокол ЕЦБ сыграл против евро
— Аналитики Райффайзенбанка Опубликованная вчера стенограмма с последнего заседания ЕЦБ выявила беспокойство среди его представителей относительно наблюдающегося в этом году сильного укрепления евро (более чем на 10% относительно доллара), которое, по их мнению, может воспрепятствовать дальнейшему восстановлению экономики еврозоны, а также усложняет задачу регулятора по достижению целевого уровня по инфляции 2% (против 1,2%, по данным за июль).

В моменте евро ушел ниже 1,169 долл., но потом вернулся на отметку 1,175 долл., где и котируется сегодня. Отметим, что значительную поддержку евро против доллара оказывает большой профицит торгового баланса еврозоны с США, а также снижение ожиданий по повышению ключевой долларовой ставки.

Террористический акт в Барселоне стал поводом для коррекции

Вслед за сообщениями о террористическом акте в Барселоне по глобальным рынкам прокатилась волна коррекции: так, европейские и американские индексы акций обесценились на 1,5% и 1%, соответственно, что сопровождалось увеличением спроса на безрисковые активы (доходность 10-летних UST опустилась на 3 б.п. до YTM 2,19%).

По нашему мнению, столь избыточная реакция на такое событие, скорее, является поводом, тогда как более глубокое объяснение связано с вялотекущим политическим кризисом в США, который лишает способности Д. Трампа провести экономические реформы. Вчера в СМИ появились высказывания некоторых сенаторов-республиканцев о том, что «требуются радикальные перемены в Белом доме», что «президент не продемонстрировал качеств, необходимых для занимаемой им должности», напомнив рынкам о кризисе, который может вновь эскалироваться уже этой осенью, когда предстоит согласование федерального бюджета в Конгрессе.

Также негативное влияние на рынки оказали слабые данные по объему производства обрабатывающих отраслей в США: за июль он сократился на 0,1% м./м. (ожидался рост на 0,2% м./м.). 

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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