Повышенное предложение валюты со стороны экспортеров будет давить на котировки доллара

Повышенное предложение валюты со стороны экспортеров будет давить на котировки доллара
—Богдан Зваричстарший аналитик ИК «Фридом Финанс» Сегодня перед открытием российского фондового рынка сложился умеренно позитивный внешний фон, а основным поводом к покупкам станет динамика на внешних площадках.

Так, по итогам торгов вторника индексы Dow Jones и S&P500 подтянулись на 0,3% и 0,2% соответственно. Сегодня с утра фьючерсы на основные американские индексы консолидируются у уровней вчерашнего закрытия. На торгах в Азии также наблюдается восходящая динамика, в результате чего японский Nikkei225 и китайский Shanghai Composite прибавляют 0,3% и 0,2%. Отметим, что ситуация на рынке энергоносителей нейтральна для наших активов: нефть марки Brent, после роста днем ранее, перешла в консолидацию над отметкой 56,5 доллара за баррель.

В сложившихся обстоятельствах мы ожидаем небольшого роста российских индексов в начале торговой сессии, а преобладание покупок позволит индексу ММВБ в первые минуты подняться в район 2090.

В дальнейшем внимание игроков переключится на ситуацию в Европе, где также возможен умеренный подъем основных индексов, что поддержит российских «быков» и позволит индексу ММВБ закрепиться у достигнутых уровней. Во второй половине дня, в отсутствии важной макроэкономической статистики из США, основным фактором для наших активов станет открытие американских рынков и динамика цен на нефть. Это может способствовать дальнейшему росту наших акций, в результате чего индекс ММВБ может закончить торги среды в районе 2100 пунктов. В частности, мы ожидаем продолжения восходящей динамики на рынке энергоносителей на ожиданиях снижения запасов углеводородов в Штатах

На валютной секции Московской биржи, после уверенного укрепления днем ранее, сегодня в начале торгов мы ожидаем его небольшого коррекционного снижения по отношению к основным мировым валютам. Этому будет способствовать желание игроков зафиксировать прибыль по краткосрочным длинным позициям в долларе и евро, в результате чего американская валюта в начале дня может подняться выше 58 рублей. Однако в дальнейшем рубль сможет отыграть потери за счет поддержки со стороны налогового периода – повышенное предложение валюты со стороны экспортеров будет давить на котировки доллара.

Во второй половине дня российский рубль может получить поддержку от рынка энергоносителей, где возможен подъем нефти марки Brent в район 57 долларов. В этом случае к концу сессии доллар сделает существенный шаг к своей ближайшей поддержке расположенной на уровне  57,5 рубля. 

 

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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