Ожидается повышенная волатильность в отдельных бумагах

Ожидается повышенная волатильность в отдельных бумагах
—Андрей Кочеткованалитик компании «Открытие Брокер» 

По итогам торгов 29 марта, индекс ММВБ снизился на 0,43% до 2023,71 пт., а РТС – на 0, 06% до 1124,91 пт. Активность на российском рынке была весьма низкой. Нефть выше $52 за баррель Brent не смогла помочь индексам. Впрочем, она помогала рублю в дальнейшем укреплении, что давило на бумаги экспортёров: Polymetal (+6,96%), «АЛРОСА» (-2,62%), «Башнефть» (-2,35%), ММК (-1,51%). 

Привилегированные бумаги «Транснефти» (-4,87%) продолжают снижаться несколько дней подряд на слухах о продаже с дисконтом пакета, который принадлежит фонду UCP. В лидерах дня оказались бумаги: «Мечел» (+8,49%), «ФосАгро» (+3,28%), «Русгидро» (+3,21%), НМТП (+2,56%), «Мостотрест» (+2,46%). 

Если на рынке акций покупатели не были активны, то на рынке ОФЗ спрос остаётся стабильно высоким. Минфин провёл два аукциона, разместив бумаги на 45 млрд рублей при общем спросе около 100 млрд рублей. Более того, аукцион ОФЗ-ПК 24019 объёмом 20 млрд привлёк спрос в размере 61,55 млрд. 

Средневзвешенная доходность по бумагам с переменным купоном составила 10,13%. Таким образом, спрос на рубли был достаточно высоким, что позволило ему вновь укрепиться. Фактически, пара USD/RUB находится вблизи минимумов с 2015 года. Впрочем, на ближайшее время, спрос на рубли будет заметно меньше.

Торги в США также отличались низкой активностью. Основные индексы завершили день разнонаправленно. Основные потери принесли акции банков, которые находятся под давлением снижающейся доходности казначейских обязательств: Bank of America (-0,57%), Citigroup (-0,07%), JPMorgan (-0,37%). 

Сектор энергетиков, или нефти и газа, напротив, оказался в плюсе, реагируя на дорожающую нефть: ConocoPhillips (+1,21%), Chevron Corp. (+0,83%), Transocean (+1,39%). Индекс незавершённых сделок по продаже домов вырос в феврале на 5,5%. Индекс «Страха» снизился ещё на 0,95% до 11,42. В среду вновь выступал глава ФРБ Чикаго Ч. Эванс, который считает вполне целесообразным повысить ставку в текущем году 1-2 раза. По итогам торгов, индекс DJIA снизился на 0,2% до 20,659.32 пт., S&P 500 подрос на 0,11% до 2,361.13 пт.

Настроения в Азии были уже не столь позитивными. В Японии завершается фискальный год и на этом фоне инвесторы не торопятся покупать. Иена торговалась по 111,2 за доллар, что также незначительно влияло на рынок. 

Доходность по 10-летним американским казначейским обязательствам незначительно выросла до 2,39%. Глобальный рынок акций растёт уже пятый месяц подряд, но II квартал, как правило, оказывается более волатильным для акций. К 8:40 (мск) индекс Shanghai Composite торговался на уровне 3213,13 пт. (-0,87%), Nikkei 225 – 19054,44 пт. (-0,85%).

Нефть продолжила дорожать на азиатских торгах. Накануне Минэнерго США сообщило, что на неделе, завершившейся 24 марта, коммерческие запасы нефти в стране выросли на 0,87 млн бар. до 534 млн бар. Запасы бензина сократились на 3,7 млн бар., а дистиллятов – на 2,5 млн бар. Общие топливные запасы сократились за неделю на 3,9 млн бар. Импорт нефти на прошедшей неделе сократился на 83 тыс. бар. до 8,2 млн бар. ежедневных поставок. Средние цифры потребления за четыре недели составили: 19,6 млн бар. общих топливных поставок в сутки, или +0,7% за год, 9,3 млн бар. бензина в сутки, или -1,0% за год, а также 4,2 млн бар. дистиллятов в сутки, или +13,1% за год. Добыча в США выросла за неделю на 18 тыс. бар. нефти в сутки до 9,147 млн бар. в сутки. Статистика Reuters говорит о том, что дисциплина соблюдения соглашения о сокращении добычи в OPEC находится на уровне 95% по сравнению с 94% в феврале. Однако сомнения остаются по уровню участия РФ. Ещё в минувшие выходные министр энергетики Александр Новак говорил, что добыча сокращена на 185 тыс. бар. К 9:00 (мск) нефть марки Brent торговалась на отметке $52,61 (+0,13%), WTI – $49,68 (+0,34%), золото – $1249,5 (-0,34%), медь – $5859,91 (-0,73%), никель – $9980 (-0,65%), палладий – $787,8 (-0,3%).

Фьючерс на индекс доллара подрастал в пределах 0,15% до 99,91. К 9:00 (мск) пара EUR/USD достигла отметки $1,075 (-0,13%), GBP/USD – $1,244 (-0,02%), USD/JPY – 111,2 (+0,17%).

Утро на российском рынке пройдёт в попытках вернуться выше 2030 пунктов по ММВБ. Однако дорожающая нефть также будет поддерживать рубль, который сдержит оптимизм в рублёвых акциях. Стоит также напомнить, что завершается квартал, а это означает подведение итогов и перетряску инвестиционных портфелей, что приведёт к повышенной волатильности в отдельных бумагах.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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