Останавливающий объем говорит о кульминации продаж

Останавливающий объем говорит о кульминации продаж
—Олег Шаговначальник аналитического отдела ИФК «Солид» Результирующее влияние ключевых внешних факторов, оказывающих существенное воздействие на поведение российского финансового рынка, сегодня в начале дня, по нашим оценкам, складывается умеренно позитивным.

Котировки августовских фьючерсов на нефть марки Brent прибавляют, стремясь подняться выше отметки в $47 за баррель в преддверии публикации данных по буровой активности в США. Фьючерсы на ведущие фондовые индексы США сегодня утром «плюсуют». Основные азиатские фондовые индикаторы большей частью демонстрируют восходящую динамику. Премаркет европейской сессии сигнализирует о повышении ведущих европейских фондовых индексов в начале торгового дня.

Открытие российского рынка акций сегодня ожидаем в районе 1820 пунктов по индексу ММВБ, предполагая, что в условиях улучшающегося внешнего фона этот фондовый индикатор предпримет попытку отыграть часть понесенных им с начала недели потерь.

Ведущие европейские фондовые индексы в четверг снизились. Британский фондовый индекс FTSE 100 по итогам дня потерял 0.74% при оборотах торгов примерно на 15% выше среднемесячных. При этом наибольшее отрицательное влияние на поведение индекса FTSE 100 вновь оказало снижение котировок акций горнодобывающих компаний Rio Tinto (-2.2%), BHP Billiton (-1.6%), Anglo American (-6%), сырьевого трейдера Glencore (-1.3%) и нефтегазового гиганта Royal Dutch Shell (-0.9%). Сдержал падение индекса FTSE 100 рост котировок акций банка HSBC (+0.9%). По итогам прошедшего заседания Банк Англии оставил свою базовую ставку неизменной, заявив, что её повышение в дальнейшем будет умеренным и постепенным. Вероятность повышения Банком Англии ставки до конца, по нашим оценкам, составляет 0.25. В свою очередь, французский фондовый индекс CAC в четверг потерял 0.5% при оборотах торгов на 40% выше среднемесячных, а падением из числа бумаг, входящих в его состав, выделились акции авиастроительной корпорации Airbus (-2.5%) и сталепроизводителя ArcelorMittal (-2.9%). Немецкий индикатор DAX (-0.89%) снизился на фоне падения котировок акций SAP (-1.1%), BASF (-1.5%) и Deutsche Telekom (-2.4%), внесших существенный вклад в его просадку.

Фондовый рынок США в четверг понес умеренные потери. Индекс американских «голубых фишек» Dow Jones чуть отступил от своего исторического максимума, потеряв в итоге дня 0.07%, а наибольшее отрицательное влияние на его поведение оказало снижение котировок акций банка Goldman Sachs (-1.5%), компании NIKE (-3.2%) и UnitedHealth Group (-1.1%). Индекс high-tech биржи NASDAQ упал на 0.47% на фоне снижения в цене акций Micron (-1.6%), Applied Materials (-1.9%), Symantec (-2.3%), Dollar Tree (-3.4%) и Mattel (-6,7%). Индекс «широкого рынка» США S&P500 (-0.22%) просел при оборотах чуть выше среднемесячных, а падением в его отраслевом спектре выделился индекс сектора «Материалы» (-0.9%).

Рынок акций РФ в четверг снизился. Индекс ММВБ опустился на 1.12%, достигнув годового минимума при максимальных за последние два года оборотах торгов, которые можно интерпретировать, как «останавливающий» объем, свидетельствующий о вероятной кульминации продаж. Подсчитываемый в долларах индекс РТС (-2.15%) просел сильнее из-за ослабления позиций рубля к доллару США.

Сегодня внутридневная динамика российского фондового рынка продолжит формироваться под влиянием поведения мировых цен на нефть, западных фондовых индикаторов, а также изменения курса рубля, выходящих данных экономической статистики и происходящих событий. Из числа предстоящих российских событий, способных оказать значимое влияние на настроение инвесторов, сегодня стоит выделить решение ЦБ РФ по ключевой ставке и пресс-конференцию главы Банка России Эльвиры Набиуллиной.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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