Неприятный сюрприз от инфляции — повод для ЦБ взять паузу?

Неприятный сюрприз от инфляции - повод для ЦБ взять паузу?
— Аналитики Райффайзенбанка По данным Росстата, инфляция в июне ускорилась до 4,4% г./г. (против 4,1% г./г. в мае), что почти полностью связано с ростом цен на плодоовощную продукцию, который происходил на протяжении всего месяца и вызвал всплеск инфляции в сегменте продуктов питания до 4,8% г./г. (против 3,9% г./г. в мае).

В целом для нас стало некоторой неожиданностью столь резкое ускорение инфляции в продовольственном сегменте, т.к. по недельным данным,рост цен в нем не должен был оказаться выше 4,2% г./г. (в недельную оценку в основном входят продукты питания). Кроме того, незначительным фактором роста инфляции выступила индексация тарифов на проезд в общественном транспорте, что немного подтолкнуло июньские цифры в сегменте услуг вверх (4,1% г./г. против 4% г./г. в мае).

Без учета этих двух факторов ИПЦ продолжил замедляться. Так, по данным Росстата, базовая инфляция снизилась до 3,5% г./г. (против 3,8% г./г. в мае), а инфляция без учета цен на фрукты и овощи достигла уровня в 4% г./г. (против 4,1% г./г. в мае). Такое улучшение динамики не было бы возможно без замедления удорожания непродовольственных товаров (4% г./г. против 4,4% г./г. в мае), что происходит на фоне слабого потребительского спроса и относительно крепкого курса рубля (этот позитивный эффект ослабевает, что создает риски для замедления дезинфляции в этом сегменте).

В целом можно отметить, что разнонаправленность трендов не позволяет делать однозначных выводов о будущей динамике инфляции, что заставляет регулятора быть крайне осторожным. Так, например, представитель ЦБ И. Дмитриев назвал июньский ценовой шок негативным сюрпризом, фактически исключая возможность снижения ставки на ближайшем заседании. Дополнительным негативным моментом является приостановка улучшения инфляционных ожиданий. По итогам июня снижения ожидаемой инфляции не произошло (10,3% г./г.), что можно объяснить высокой чувствительностью населения к ценам на плодоовощную продукцию. Кроме того, осторожность ЦБ в последнее время продиктована не столько опасениями роста цен на фрукты и овощи, сколько 1) рисками перехода населения от сберегательной модели поведения к потребительской и 2) последовательным исчерпанием эффекта сильного курса рубля.

С другой стороны, важным фактором «за» для ЦБ могло бы стать снижение базовой, а не общей инфляции. Базовая инфляция —  это то, на что ЦБ может повлиять с помощью ставки и на динамику чего должен ориентироваться при принятии решений (игнорируя колебания немонетарных факторов, таких как тарифы, цены на продукты питания и т.п., на что нельзя повлиять мерами монетарной политики).

Кроме того, по последним недельным данным, активный рост цен на плодоовощную продукцию остановился, что может быть сигналом о временном характере ускорения продовольственной инфляции в июне. В совокупности с продолжением снижения темпов роста цен в непродовольственном сегменте ИПЦ в июле может вернуться к уровням 4,1-4,2% г./г. С учетом того, что до заседания ЦБ (28 июля) остается еще 3 недели, риторика регулятора может измениться.

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