Начало дня на российском рынке будет вполне позитивным

Начало дня на российском рынке будет вполне позитивным
—Андрей Кочеткованалитик компании «Открытие Брокер» Рубль сохранит свои вечерние достижения, хотя его укрепление до 57,0 за доллар пока кажется чрезмерным.

По итогам торгов 10 мая индекс ММВБ подрос на 1,29% до 2028,21 п., РТС укрепился на 2,39% до 1111,64 п. Российский рынок догонял Европу, которая отметила ростом победу Э. Макрона на президентских выборах во Франции. Кроме того, позитивному настрою способствовала нефть и корпоративные отчёты. Сбербанк (+3,02%) отчитался о росте прибыли по РСБУ в январе-апреле на 45,5%. «Юнипро» (+3,79%) сообщила о получении прибыли по МСФО в I квартале в размере 4,64 млрд по сравнению с убытком годом ранее. Однако лидером дня все же оказались бумаги «Система» (+8,66%), которая назвала незаконным иск «Роснефти». Кроме того, Арбитражный суд Москвы вернул исковое заявление «Роснефти» (+0,83%) и «Башнефти» (+2,55%) к «Система». Слабее всех оказались: «Уралкалий» (-3,79%), «ПИК» (-3,36%0, ОГК-2 (-3,03%).

На валютном рынке рубль вновь укреплялся как за счёт спокойного фона в Европе, так и бурного роста котировок нефти. С другой стороны, нельзя сказать, что банки испытывают существенные потребности в рублях. Казначейство РФ смогло разместить 81 млрд рублей на депозитах в банках по ставке 8,75% при максимальном объёме предложения в 100 млрд рублей.

Американский рынок завершил день очередным рекордом S&P 500 благодаря росту в секторе энергетики: Chevron Corp. (+1,35%), Exxon Mobil (+0,45%), ConocoPhillips (+2,87%). Представители ФРС звучали достаточно противоречиво. Если глава ФРБ Далласа Р. Каплан усомнился в скорости повышения ставки, то президент ФРБ Бостона Э. Розенгрен высказал мнение о необходимости повышения ставки три раза в текущем году и сокращения $4,5 трлн баланса Федрезерва. На этом фоне аукцион по размещению 10-летних казначейских обязательств США показал снижение спроса и рост доходности до 2,41%. Слабый отчёт Walt Disney (-2,15%) оказал давление на индекс Dow Jones. «Индекс Страха» незначительно повысился, отойдя от своего минимума за 24 года. Показатель вырос на 2,51% до 10,21%. В итоге DJIA снизился на 0,16% до 20943,11 п., S&P 500 подрос на 0,11% до 2399,63 п.

На азиатских площадках также охотно покупали бумаги энергетического сектора, реагируя на бурный рост котировок нефти накануне. Новозеландский доллар резко ослаб на фоне сохранения ставки Резервного Банка страны и нейтрального итогового заявления. В Китае продолжают беспокоиться по поводу возможных новых мер по ограничению кредитования. 

Южнокорейский KOSPI проигнорировал очередные ракетные испытания в С. Корее. Иена торговалась около 114,2 за доллар, что помогало бумагам японских экспортёров. К 8:40 (мск) Shanghai Composite – 3039,05 (-0,45%), Nikkei 225 – 19979,25 (+0,40%).

Рост нефти накануне был связан, естественно, с публикацией отчёта Минэнерго США. Согласно данным ведомства, на неделе, завершившейся 5 мая, коммерческие запасы нефти в США сократились на 5,2 млн бар. до 522,5 млн бар. при прогнозе сокращения на -1,8 млн бар. Запасы бензина снизились на 0,2 млн бар., а дистиллятов – на 1,6 млн бар. Импорт сырой нефти на отчётной неделе сократился на 644 тыс. бар. в сутки до 7,6 млн бар. ежедневных поставок. Средний показатель спроса за четыре недели составил 19,7 млн бар. в сутки общих топливных поставок или  минус 1,6% за год, 9,2 млн бар. бензина в сутки или  минус 2,4% за год, а также 4,1 млн бар. дистиллятов в сутки или  минус 0,7% за год. Добыча в США продолжает расти. На отчётной неделе она увеличилась на 21 тыс. бар. до 9,314 млн бар. в сутки. Однако рынок пока игнорирует данный факт, сосредоточившись на заявлениях из Ирака и Алжира, где также поддерживают продление соглашения о сокращении добычи. Беспорядки в Венесуэле забрали ещё две жизни, а нефтеперерабатывающая индустрия страны работает на уровне 43% мощности. В четверг оптимизм в нефтяных контрактах может продолжиться, хотя впереди ещё много сомнений. Саудовская Аравия объявила о сокращении поставок азиатским потребителям, но на этом фоне РФ наращивает свой экспорт как в Индию, так и Китай. Собственно говоря, позиция Москвы может оказаться главным камнем преткновения на грядущих переговорах OPEC+ по продлению соглашения по сокращению добычи. 

Кроме того, днём выйдет ежемесячный обзор OPEC. Начало дня на российском рынке будет вполне позитивным, так как российские участники продолжат реагировать на нефть. Рубль сохранит свои вечерние достижения, хотя его укрепление до 57,0 за доллар пока кажется чрезмерным.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

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