На фондовый рынок США налетели тучи

На фондовый рынок США налетели тучи
—Павел Пахомовруководитель учебного центра Санкт-Петербургской биржи 

Вчерашние торги, как это ни странно, прошли ровно так, как и предполагало большинство аналитиков. Умеренно негативный фон, охвативший с утра азиатские и европейские рынки, накрыл и Америку. Единственной неожиданностью, пожалуй, стал лишь продолжающийся спрос на акции крупнейших американских компаний, входящих в индекс DJIA-30. И прежде всего на акции лидеров рынка здравоохранения и медицины — Pfizer (PFE, +1,55%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, +0,90%) и United Health (UNH, +0,92%). Однако эта неожиданность все же относительна. Старейший американский индекс выдает в последние 2 недели выдающуюся серию — рост продолжается уже 8 торговых сессий подряд, причем по итогам 7 последних торгов ежедневно обновлялись исторические максимумы. И все это на очень даже приличных оборотах. Вообще, последний фактор как-то напрягает. Такое впечатление, что никто не собирается уходить в отпуск и все ждут чего-то важного. Теперь знать бы, чего именно?

Как и предполагалось, основные события развивались не столько глобально в секторах, сколько в отдельных акциях, которые или только что отчитались о своей деятельности за 2-й квартал 2017 года (например, Tesla (TSLA, +6,51%) или Kelogg (K, +4,33%)), или же в тех акциях, квартальная отчетность которых должна была выйти сразу же по окончанию торгов. К последним следует отнести прежде всего акции компании Activision Blizzard (ATVI) — лидера в сфере разработки видеоигр и акции одного из лидеров «мусорно-коммунального» сектора — компании Stericycle (SRCL, +8,87%).  

Что касается акций Tesla, то тут ничего удивительного не было. Куча фанатов Tesla жутко обрадовалась, что убытки у компании оказались чуть меньше, чем ожидали аналитики, и с новой неистовой силой бросились покупать подешевевшие в последнее время акции. 

А вот на ход торгов акциями ATVI и SRCL было очень интересно наблюдать. Эти акции и сами по себе очень интересны и с хорошим потенциалом роста, да плюс еще ожидания аналитиков по выходу квартальной отчетности были весьма и весьма позитивны. И поэтому народ в течение всех торгов вплоть до закрытия покупал и покупал эти акции с надежной на хороший гэп после торгов. Однако, по-видимому, вчера все же с этими акциями чуток перестарались. Все же +4% по ATVI и плюс почти 9% по SRCL — это уже перебор. И когда по окончанию основной торговой сессии вышла отчетность фактически in-line, то есть такая как и прогнозировали аналитики, для гэпа уже не было сил. И началась банальная фиксация прибыли — и акции обеих компаний ушли в минус.

Ожидания рынка 4 августа

На фондовый рынок, несмотря на постоянно обновляющийся и все выше взбирающийся индекс DJIA-30, за пару последних дней налетели тучки. Надо все же понимать, что старина Dow Jones — это еще не весь американский рынок. И поэтому гораздо большее значение имеет не рост акций компаний Nike (NKE) или Goldman Sachs (GS), входящих в индекс Dow (хотя это, конечно, тоже важно!), сколько рост акций технологического и биотехнологического секторов. А вот с этим в последние дни как-то не очень…

После выхода отчетности Amazon участников рынка как подменили. Они перестали покупать акции высокотехнологичных компаний и стали фиксировать в них прибыль. Не помогла даже супер хорошая отчетность от Apple (AAPL). Пока фиксация прибыли локальна и не перешла в фазу массовых распродаж. Однако нервозность уже явно чувствуется. Может сегодняшний день сможет как-то подбодрить рынок? 

Несмотря на то что сегодня пятница и вроде бы надо готовиться к выходным, нас ждут достаточно серьезные события. И если до сих пор на этой неделе главным был выход квартальной отчетности от ведущих компаний, то сегодня на первый план выходит макроэкономическая статистика. Данные по безработице яркой вывеской светятся сегодня на фоне текущих торгов. Вся информация выйдет еще до начала основной торговой сессии в привычное для выхода макроэкономической статистики время — в 15-30 мск. Ожидания аналитиков при этом не внушают слишком уж сильного оптимизма. Новые рабочие места и в не сельскохозяйственных секторах, и в частном секторе должны сократиться по сравнению с предыдущим периодом. По-видимому, здесь все же происходит насыщение. Но этот относительный негатив должны перекрыть цифры об уровне безработицы, которая по-прежнему находится на запредельно низких уровнях в районе 4,3%.

Кроме того, начала беспокоить нефть. Если последние 10 дней все было более-менее спокойно, то теперь и здесь настроения стали меняться в худшую сторону, и это несмотря на то, что последние данные о запасах показывают ее сокращение. Поэтому сегодня достаточно важным видится выход данных о количестве новых буровых от компании Baker Hughes. Эти данные должны появиться в 20-00 мск, и именно в этот период можно ожидать всплеска активности и возможную волатильность в нефтяных котировках. 

А еще не забываем, что сегодня пятница и плюс — это пятница перед чуть ли не официальным началом сезона отпусков. И в связи с этим можно ожидать более активной фиксации прибыли теми, кто все же хочет «бросить все к черту» и погреть «свою лысину» где-нибудь на далеких экзотических островах.

Из всего этого вытекает на самом деле очень смешанная картина. Скорее всего, мы все же увидим усиление продаж, но пока эти продажи будут сдерживаться энтузиазмом отдельных покупателей, которые еще продолжают верить в светлое будущее. И поэтому минус 0,1-0,2% — это будет очень хороший результат для такого непростого дня.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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