Корпоративные облигации: участники перестали видеть различия между I и II эшелонами

Корпоративные облигации: участники перестали видеть различия между I и II эшелонами
— Аналитики Райффайзенбанка 

В результате размещения 5-летних облигаций АФК Система (BB/-/BB-) на 15 млрд руб. ставка купона была установлена на уровне 8,9% год. (YTP 9,1% = ОФЗ + 100 б.п.). С такой же ставкой купона разместились и 4-летние облигации ФГУП Почта России (Fitch: BBB-) номиналом 15 млрд руб. Таким образом, инвесторы не сделали различия между бумагами разных кредитных рейтингов (3 ступени по шкале Fitch) и качества. Для сравнения, спред AFKSRU 19 — Russia 19 составляет 140 б.п., а евробонды 1-го эшелона к суверенной кривой котируются с премией 50-100 б.п.

По-видимому, нетипичная ситуация на локальном рынке обусловлена «погоней» за фиксированной ставкой в условиях возросших ожиданий некоторых участников рынка более быстрого снижения ключевой ставки ЦБ (этому способствует как действие ЦБ на мартовском заседании, так и текущее сильное укрепление рубля). В результате границы между эшелонами временно стерлись.

Как следствие, покупатели АФК Системы будут получать отрицательный carry в течение длительного времени, при этом бумаги, вероятно, будут выглядеть хуже рынка (в отличие от выпуска Почты России, у которого отрицательный carry, скорее всего, будет компенсирован ценовым ростом).

Сегодня закрывается книга заявок на покупку 6-летних РЖД (BB+/Ba1/BBB-) с ориентиром 8,9-9% год. по ставке купона, что соответствует YTP 9,09-9,19%. Для сравнения, находящиеся в обращении рублевые евробонды RURAIL 19, 24 котируются с YTM 9,09% и YTM 9,13, соответственно.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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