ФРС укажет путь Уолл-стрит

ФРС  укажет путь Уолл-стрит
—Александр Разуваевдиректор аналитического департамента «Альпари» Итоги двухдневного заседания ФРС вряд ли преподнесет сюрприз. Ставка с очень высокой вероятностью останется без изменений.

Тем не менее, с большой долей вероятности можно предположить, что будет принято фундаментальное долгосрочное решение, которое будет иметь существенное влияние на мировые фондовый и валютный рынки. Скорее всего, ФРС объявит о сокращении своего баланса.

Портфель государственных бумаг оценивается в $4,5 трлн.  Исходя из ранее опубликованной информации, ФРС планирует сокращать объем казначейских облигаций не более чем на $10 млрд в месяц, затем этот показатель будет доведен до $50 млрд. Таргетом является уровень в $3 трлн. Естественно, ФРС продолжит цикл повышения ставки: она может быть повышена уже в декабре. Умеренное ужесточение денежно-кредитной политики со стороны ФРС вряд ли приведет к кризису ликвидности на рынках. Коррекцию на американском фондовом рынке ждать не стоит. Доллар также вероятно продолжит умеренное ослабление против евро.

Действия ФРС будут способствовать ослаблению курса российского рубля. Однако, для российской национальной валюты более значимы цены на нефть, формирование бюджета и геополитические факторы. Что касается российского рынка акций, то на первый план выходят дивидендные истории.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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