Давление на российские евробонды сохранится из-за геополитических рисков

Давление на российские евробонды сохранится из-за геополитических рисков
—Александр Полютованалитик Промсвязьбанка 

В пятницу российские суверенные евробонды довольно сдержанно отреагировали на сообщения о ракетном ударе США по авиабазе в Сирии и ответные заявления российской стороны. Данные новости вызвали уход от риска на глобальных площадках – UST-10 снизились в доходности до 2,29%-2,3% годовых, при этом нефть взлетела к 55,5-56 долл. за барр. по смеси Brent. На этом фоне бенчмарк RUS’23 снизился на 13 б.п. (YTM 3,51%), длинные выпуски RUS’42 и RUS’43 – на 33-46 б.п. (YTM 4,88%). В то же время CDS на Россию (5 лет) вырос на 8,5 б.п. до 170 б.п.

Сегодня давление на российский сегмент евробондов, вероятно, сохранится на фоне сообщений в СМИ в выходные, что американский президент Д.Трамп может рассмотреть возможность ввода новых санкций против России по сирийскому вопросу. Скорее всего, продолжится сдержанное снижение котировок и сужение спрэдов с другими суверенными евробондами EM, по крайней мере, до поступления новой информации на геополитической арене, которая может появиться по итогам встречи госсекретаря США Р.Тиллерсона и главы МИД РФ С.Лаврова в Москве 11-12 апреля.

Бенчмарк RUS’23 может вернуться в диапазон 3,5%-3,55% годовых, в том числе учитывая подъем доходности базовых активов – UST-10 выросла с 2,3% до 2,37%-2,38% годовых. Дальнейшая динамика доходности российских госбумаг будет определяться геополитикой, где заметно возросли риски. 

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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Уведомление: vegus168 สมัคร

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