Чего ждет ЕЦБ?

Чего ждет ЕЦБ?
—Михаил Крыловдиректор аналитического департамента «Golden Hills — КапиталЪ АМ» «Экономика ещё не в том состоянии», — этими словами ЕЦБ уменьшил ожидания сворачивания смягчения. Откуда у него уверенность в постепенном ускорении инфляции и о чём свидетельствует отсутствие более сильной динамики роста цен прямо сейчас?

Если удельные затраты на рабочую силу в Германии за 5 лет выросли на 10%, а индекс производительности труда увеличился только на 2,5%, каждый год только от рынка труда нужно было ждать позитивного вклада в потребительскую инфляцию около 1,5 процентного пункта, который ещё почти не проявлялся; его-то все и ждут. В пользу этого и ожидаемое ускорение роста заработка до 3-4% в год, при отсутствии кардинальных сдвигов в производительности сейчас и максимально возможном её росте на 1,5% в год. Вклад потребительского сектора в рост цен внутри зоны евро, по идее, должен быть 1,5-2,5%, как минимум.

Судя по недавнему исследованию журнала The Economist, одна из причин, почему Германия так успешно справилась с мировым кризисом 2008 года, заключалась в том, что рост заработка в 2000-2007 годах был всего 1% в год при среднем по ОЭСР около 3,5% в год.

По приложенным к этому исследованию сведениям Thomson Reuters, с 1999 по 2012 год индекс удельных затрат на оплату труда в Германии упал на примерно 20%, тогда как в Испании за первые восемь лет этого века он вырос на 25%, и в Италии за десятилетие после 1999 года увеличился на более чем 15%. 

Так-то оно так, но за последние 5 лет удельные затраты на рабочую силу в Германии стали расти, а производительность труда почти нет, и при этом у экономики хватает ресурсов на возрастание прибыли компаний. О чём это говорит? Прежде всего, об устойчивости бизнес-моделей, проверенных временем и завоёвывающих популярность по всему миру.

Наши собственные исследования и данные The Economist прекрасно иллюстрируют одну из причин, по которым мы выбираем индекс DAX в качестве отправной точки для инвестиций в европейские ценные бумаги. Выправление ВВП Германии — долгосрочный процесс, который может основываться, среди прочего, на увеличении заработка. 

Отсутствие инфляции при росте экономики и здоровом рынке труда свидетельствует об особенностях передаточного механизма ДКП. За фасадом комментариев ЕЦБ скрываются глубинные процессы немецкой экономики, позитивные для индекса DAX, и в особенности для таких компаний, как Daimler, Henkel и Heidelberg Cement. Казалось бы, всем известная немецкая бережливость создаёт возможность инвестировать, среди прочего, в повышение рентабельности компаний Германии в будущем, заложенное в механизме денежно-кредитной политики уже сегодня.

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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