ЦБ РФ может не снизить ставку, чтобы остаться последовательным и соблюсти жесткий прогноз

ЦБ РФ может не снизить ставку, чтобы остаться последовательным и соблюсти жесткий прогноз
—Аналитики Sberbank Investment Research  

На этой неделе мы будем внимательно следить за выступлениями представителей ЦБ в ходе Недели российского бизнеса — ежегодного мероприятия, которое проводит Российский союз промышленников и предпринимателей (РСПП). 

На наш взгляд, сильный тренд дезинфляции и поразительная устойчивость рубля к валютным интервенциям обусловливают целесообразность более раннего понижения ключевой ставки. Тем не менее ЦБ может принять решение не приступать к смягчению денежно-кредитной политики до апреля с тем, чтобы оставаться последовательным и соблюсти жесткий прогноз, представленный в феврале. И хотя регулятор уже смягчил свою риторику в преддверии предстоящего заседания, мы полагаем, что этого недостаточно для понижения ставки 24 марта, особенно если ЦБ хочет сохранить верность ранее озвученным взглядам. В связи с этим нам следует внимательно прислушаться к выступлениям первых зампредов ЦБ Сергея Шевцова и Дмитрия Тулина (сегодня) и главы регулятора Эльвиры Набиуллиной (в четверг): возможно, в них будут содержаться указания на то, рассматривает ли ЦБ всерьез возможность понижения ставки уже в этом месяце.

Похоже, котировки нефти WTI опустились ниже критически важного уровня поддержки. В ответ на это курс USD/RUB может пробить отметку 59,00, прогнозируют стратеги Sberbank Investment Research.

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