Аукционы ОФЗ: покупка бумаг интересна лишь с премией, которой вновь может не быть

Аукционы ОФЗ: покупка бумаг интересна лишь с премией, которой вновь может не быть
— Аналитики Райффайзенбанка 

Сегодня Минфин вновь предлагает два классических выпуска: 9,5-летние ОФЗ 26219 и 2-летние ОФЗ 26216 на 27 млрд руб. и 13 млрд руб., соответственно. По-видимому, такой выбор обусловлен снижением доходностей, которое за неделю с предыдущего аукциона составило 5-10 б.п. до YTM 8,43% по 2-летним и YTM 8,1% по 10-летним ОФЗ (доходность 26207 опустилась ниже YTM 7,95%). Кроме того, на прошлых аукционах наблюдался ажиотажный спрос, который позволил реализовать даже дебютные 26221 без премии ко вторичному рынку, несмотря на коррекцию нефти и UST.

Возможно, ажиотаж будет и сегодня (что не позволит купить бумаги с премией по доходности), чему могут способствовать спекуляции на тему решения ЦБ по ставке. Ряд участников скорректировали прогнозы в пользу снижения ставки на 25 б.п. после заявлений И. Дмитриева, посчитав их «прелюдией» к смягчению политики ЦБ. По нашему мнению, снижение ставки означало бы слишком резкое смягчение позиции в сравнении с заседанием в феврале. Остаются повышенными и инфляционные ожидания (в феврале они двигались в направлении, противоположном инфляции).

Мы не ожидаем снижения ставки в пятницу и не рекомендуем покупать длинные ОФЗ, которые выглядят перекупленными. Но, как мы уже отмечали, наличие ажиотажного спроса, слабо зависящего от конъюнктуры внешних рынков, может воспрепятствовать возможной коррекции ОФЗ (короткие позиции являются рисковыми). Наш прогноз предполагает, что средняя ключевая ставка на следующие 24М составит 8,6% годовых, что выше доходности 2-летних бумаг. Таким образом, покупка бумаг со ставкой купона (RUONIA+) является более интересной альтернативой (мы рекомендуем 29011, 29006). 

В разделе «Мнения» сайта Агентства экономической информации «ПРАЙМ» публикуются материалы, предоставленные аналитиками, трейдерами и экспертами российских и зарубежных компаний, банков, а также публикуются мнения собственных экспертов Агентства «ПРАЙМ». Мнения авторов по тому или иному вопросу, отраженные в публикуемых Агентством материалах , могут не совпадать с мнением редакции АЭИ «ПРАЙМ». Авторы и АЭИ «ПРАЙМ» не берут на себя ответственность за действия, предпринятые на основе данной информации. С появлением новых данных по рынку позиция авторов может меняться.

Представленные мнения выражены с учетом ситуации на момент выхода материала и носят исключительно ознакомительный характер; они не являются предложением или советом по совершению каких-либо действий и/или сделок, в том числе по покупке либо продаже ценных бумаг. По всем вопросам размещения информации в разделе «Мнения» Вы можете обращаться в редакцию агентства: combroker@1prime.ru.

Источник: 1prime.ru

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The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.

Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.

Sorry for the huge review, but I’m really loving the new Zune, and hope this, as well as the excellent reviews some other people have written, will help you decide if it’s the right choice for you.

The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.

Zune and iPod: Most people compare the Zune to the Touch, but after seeing how slim and surprisingly small and light it is, I consider it to be a rather unique hybrid that combines qualities of both the Touch and the Nano. It’s very colorful and lovely OLED screen is slightly smaller than the touch screen, but the player itself feels quite a bit smaller and lighter. It weighs about 2/3 as much, and is noticeably smaller in width and height, while being just a hair thicker.

Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.

If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.

I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

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