Собственники квартир «ушли в подполье»: эксперты проанализировали рынок недвижимости

Собственники квартир «ушли в подполье»: эксперты проанализировали рынок недвижимости

Застройщики идут на рекорд

Собственники квартир "ушли в подполье": эксперты проанализировали рынок недвижимости
фото: Денис Трудников

Строители-оптимисты

В прошлом году Мосгосстройнадзор выдал разрешения на строительство 10,17 млн кв. м жилой недвижимости. Для сравнения: в 2015 году застройщикам разрешили возвести 5,3 млн кв. м жилья. По данным «ИРН-Консалтинг», в 2015 году только в зоне от Третьего транспортного кольца до МКАД объем предложения вырос на 62%, с 712,7 тыс. до 1153,5 млн кв. м, то есть до рекордного за предыдущие семь лет уровня.

На первый взгляд такая активность девелоперов в нынешней экономической ситуации вызывает недоумение. Но у этой тенденции есть основания. Во-первых, компании стремились успеть оформить документацию до вступления в силу с 1 января 2017 года поправок к 214-ФЗ, которые ужесточают требования к девелоперам, порядок страхования новостроек. Во-вторых, столичные власти обещают принять в середине 2017 года правила землепользования и застройки, что также усложнит девелоперам запуск новых проектов. В частности, станет труднее изменить статус земельного участка.

В-третьих, как отметил руководитель АЦ «Индикаторы рынка недвижимости» Олег Репченко, строительный бум последних лет во многом объясняется «оттепелью» в 2012–2013 гг., когда после окончания ревизии инвестконтрактов многие девелоперы практически одновременно запустили подготовку множества новых строек в Москве, в том числе ряд крупных проектов по редевелопменту промзон. Работа над новым проектом занимает несколько лет, и приостановить этот процесс крайне сложно и затратно.

Большинство застройщиков твердо уверены, что благодаря росту цен на нефть платежеспособный спрос на жилье вот-вот вернется на докризисный уровень. «Но чтобы продать все построенное, цены на недвижимость, по всей видимости, придется снижать и дальше», — резонно заключил Репченко.

Собственники квартир "ушли в подполье": эксперты проанализировали рынок недвижимости
фото: Иван Скрипалев

Доступный юго-восток

Несмотря на существенный рост предложения, за истекший год средняя цена 1 кв. метра массового жилья в столице практически не изменилась: по сравнению с четвертым кварталом 2015 года снижение составило 1,5% и достигло отметки в 144,1 тыс. руб., сообщила председатель совета директоров компании «БЕСТ-Новострой» Ирина Доброхотова.

Основной причиной падения цен в минувшем году стали структурные изменения: увеличение доли предложения в самом доступном по цене округе — ЮВАО, а также в районах, расположенных за МКАД (Митино, Некрасовка, Солнцево и пр.). Самые доступные новостройки расположены в основном на юго-востоке (около 22% от общего объема квартир в продаже). На втором месте — ЮАО (17%), на третьем — СВАО, где доля предложения за год увеличилась вдвое, до 14% от общего объема квартир на экспозиции. Добавим, что проекты экономкласса по-прежнему остаются в дефиците: в общем объеме предложения они составляют порядка 10%, это 25 корпусов в 5 проектах.

Структура объема предложения в Москве и в Московской области кардинально изменилась. Как сообщила гендиректор компании «МИЭЛЬ-Новостройки» Наталья Шаталина, если два года назад покупателям предлагалось 70% новостроек в Подмосковье, то под конец 2016-го этот показатель упал до 54,9%. В Москве же, напротив, объемы предложения новостроек выросли с 19,9% в 2014 году до 37,1% к концу 2016-го. Причем речь идет о жилье, которое строится в границах старой Москвы, доля рынка Новой Москвы практически не меняется.

«Завершение программы по субсидированию ипотечной ставки может психологически отразиться на настроениях покупателей и привести в конечном итоге к снижению объема спроса в начале 2017 года, — считает Анна Соколова, директор департамента консалтинга и управления проектами «Метриум Групп». — Тем не менее, по заявкам, принятым до конца декабря 2016 года, кредиты по льготным ставкам в основных банках будут предоставляться до весны 2017 года. Кроме того, благодаря снижению ключевой ставки до 10% уровень ипотечных ставок без субсидирования ожидается не запредельным (в среднем — 11,5–12,5%). Это позволит вернуть интерес покупателей к первичному жилью спустя первые «шоковые» месяцы.

По мнению Доброхотовой, в ближайшей перспективе колебания средней цены 1 кв. метра доступного жилья в Москве будут также находиться в пределах инфляции. «При этом объем предложения в наступившем году будет расти, в том числе за счет освоения участков под бывшими промышленными зонами. Этому процессу будет способствовать изменение законодательства: 1 января вступил в силу закон, регулирующий развитие этих территорий», — пояснила эксперт.

В поисках «дна»

В отличие от новостроек, где объем предложения значительно превышает спрос, на вторичном рынке наблюдается обратная ситуация: в этом сегменте наблюдается дефицит ликвидных объектов по адекватной цене. «Сейчас доля квартир, реально участвующих в сделках купли-продажи, составляет 20%, в то время как оставшиеся 80% — это «виртуальный» объем предложения», — отметил директор департамента вторичного рынка «ИНКОМ-Недвижимость» Сергей Шлома.

В результате большинство квартир, выставленных сегодня на столичном вторичном рынке жилья, — это низкокачественный, непривлекательный для покупателей неликвид, который можно продать только по очень низкой цене, чего, естественно, продавцы не делают. В итоге, по мнению Шломы, на рынке сформировался «синдром разочарованного продавца»: собственники, потеряв надежду реализовать свою жилплощадь, разочаровываются и в покупателях, и в риелторах, и в рынке в целом и в конечном итоге уходят «в подполье», надеясь, что в будущем цены на недвижимость начнут расти. Сейчас владельцы квартир с нетерпением ждут обострения конкуренции с первичкой, где действовала программа субсидирования ипотеки на новостройки.

Сколько им придется ждать разворота цен, неясно. По оценке Est-a-Tet, на вторичном рынке российской столицы за 2016 год доля сделок, заключаемых с дисконтом, увеличилась с 35% до 80%. Хотя в нормальное время доля дисконтных сделок не превышает 50%. По сути, скидки не предоставлялись только на квартиры, которые изначально выставлялись на рынок по ценам ниже рыночных, например залоговое жилье. По мнению экспертов, без дисконта, который, по сути, стал замаскированным снижением цен, в минувшем году продать недвижимость было практически невозможно. Средний срок экспозиции вторичного жилья за 2016 год увеличился в два раза, до четырех месяцев.

По оценкам компании «НДВ-Недвижимость», средняя стоимость одного «квадрата» в столице в декабре уменьшилась на 3% в национальной валюте, составив 194,5 тыс. руб., что соответствует показателям докризисной весны 2014 года. И это далеко не предел, уверены специалисты. Так что цены на готовые квартиры будут и дальше сползать вниз.

Источник: mk.ru

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