Ипотека повисла в воздухе

Ипотека повисла в воздухе

Как рынок жилищного кредитования будет жить без субсидий?

Ипотека повисла в воздухе
фото: Денис Трудников

Любимая цифра

Не только предновогодняя атмосфера бодрит российских банкиров. По итогам уходящего года участники рынка заглянули в ипотечные портфели и обрадовались: там как минимум не пусто. «За 10 месяцев 2016 года выдано почти столько же рублевых ипотечных ссуд, сколько за весь 2015 год», — озвучивает общерыночную статистику руководитель АЦ «Сравни.ру» Вадим Тихонов. С начала года, по его словам, объем совокупного портфеля ипотечных кредитов российской банковской системы увеличился на 9,6% — до 4,3 трлн руб.

Финансисты подтверждают: мол, растем. Но, комментируя вопросы об объемах общего ипотечного портфеля банка, темпах прироста, количественной динамике клиентской базы и «штучном» росте кредитов, часто избегают развернутого ответа.

Так, отмечает старший вице-президент ВТБ 24 Андрей Осипов, по итогам 10 месяцев 2016 года ипотечный портфель банка достиг 862 млрд руб. Его коллега по группе, руководитель дирекции ипотечных продаж банка ВТБ (бывший Банк Москвы) Георгий Тер-Аристокесянц сообщил: на 1 ноября текущего года объем ипотечного портфеля кредитной организации составляет 102 млрд руб.». В «Уралсибе» уточнили, что объем выдач в 2016 году по сравнению с аналогичным периодом 2015 года увеличился более чем в 3,5 раза. Еще в нескольких банках запрошенную статистику попробовали подсчитать, но не успели.

Красивая поддержка

Зато почти все участники рынка с удовольствием рассказывали об итогах реализации госпрограммы субсидирования процентных ставок по ипотечным кредитам на «первичку» (строящееся или готовое жилье от застройщика). Такой энтузиазм логичен: именно эта программа стала драйвером развития для рынка в целом и для ипотечного бизнеса отдельных банков.

Суть такова. В марте 2015 года, вскоре после декабрьского «черного вторника» (повышения Банком России ключевой ставки на 6,5 п.п. до 17% годовых и обвального падения рубля), правительство выделило средства на поддержку ипотечного сегмента и рынка новостроек. Сработало: за счет субсидирования части процентной ставки потихоньку начал оживать потребительский спрос на жилищные кредиты. Как следствие, застройщики получили возможность продавать свои объекты.

В 2016 году власти решили продлить волшебное действие госпрограммы. И хотя дотации для банкиров сократились, заемщикам есть из чего выбрать. Во-первых, базовое условие осталось прежним: ставка для потребителя не должна превышать 12% годовых. Во-вторых, в течение 2016 года ключевая ставка ЦБ уменьшилась до 10% — ресурсы для самих кредиторов подешевели. И наконец, по мере расширения круга участников госпрограммы началась нешуточная борьба. Руководитель сектора аналитики кредитных продуктов «Банки.ру» Елена Сударикова обращает внимание, что ставка здесь очень привлекательная, спрос со стороны клиентов высокий: банкам нужно конкурировать между собой. Поэтому процентную ставку банки снижают за свой счет в стремлении привлечь как можно больше заемщиков. По словам эксперта, минимальные ставки по продуктам с господдержкой составляют около 10% годовых.

Прощай, праздник?

Возникает ощущение праздника: ставки низкие, банки добрые, цены на жилье соблазнительные… Но «праздник» завершится в канун Нового года: 31 декабря 2016 года действие госпрограммы заканчивается. Отдельные игроки, например Сбербанк и ВТБ24, разрешили потенциальным заемщикам, успевшим подать заявку на ипотеку с господдержкой до конца года, в случае положительного решения оформить кредит до 1 марта 2017 года. Но это продление по сути является программой лояльности со стороны считаных участников рынка. Де-факто и де-юре госпрограмма должна быть свернута в первый день грядущего года.

И вот здесь начинаются странности. Чиновники сделали ряд заявлений о возможной пролонгации программы в разной риторике — от «нет, но предложим что-то другое» до «продлим, если будет плохо». Так, например, 19 октября «Интерфакс-Недвижимость» процитировал министра строительства и ЖКХ Михаила Меня, который отметил: в конце 2016 года начнется обсуждение новых мер поддержки ипотеки, «но в том виде, в котором существует субсидирование — до 12%, сегодня это не имеет никакого смысла, потому что уже по сути рыночные ставки с учетом снижения ключевой приближаются к 12%». Уже 30 ноября тот же министр добавил к вышесказанному: «Если мы почувствуем некую турбулентность в экономике, то немедленно будет включен отработанный нами механизм государственного субсидирования ипотеки». Он сообщил, что «включить» его можно в течение двух недель: «Мы готовы и теперь уже вооружены».

Коктейль из мнений

На запрос «ЭВ» в Минстрое не ответили. Поэтому мы спросили крупнейшие банки страны: есть ли у них точная информации о возможной пролонгации госпрограммы? «Информация о продлении программы на федеральном уровне отсутствует», — заявили в пресс-службе Сбербанка. «На сегодняшний день у нас нет информации, будет ли продлена госпрограмма субсидирования ставок по ипотеке», — передали пресс-службы одинаковые слова г-на Осипова и г-на Тер-Аристокесянца. Другие крупнейшие тоже не в курсе.

«ЭВ» решил попытать счастья у девелоперов. Здесь уверенности побольше. «Ипотека с господдержкой, как и заявлено, будет работать до конца текущего года. С 2017 года рынок будет функционировать по коммерческим ставкам банков», — заявила начальник отдела продаж «БФА-Девелопмент» Светлана Денисова. И все же, по словам гендиректора Rezidential Group Сергея Ильясаева, «девелоперские компании ждут от правительства и банков новых ипотечных программ, способных стимулировать спрос потенциальных покупателей и стать новым драйвером отрасли и экономики».

Резюмируя сведения от спикеров разной степени информированности, «ЭВ» предположил, что госпрограмма в ее нынешнем формате продлена не будет, но вариации на тему возможны. До появления новой информации — загадочные вариации.

Горшочек, не вари? 

А нужно ли программу продлевать? Может, уже оказанной поддержки достаточно, рынок способен развиваться самостоятельно?

Госбанки не жалуются. «Программа субсидирования ипотечного кредитования выполнила свою основную функцию и оперативно поддержала рынок ипотечного кредитования одновременно со всей отраслью строительства жилья», — говорят в Сбербанке. «После отмены программы ставка по кредитам на новостройки и готовое жилье значительно не вырастет, скорее, выровняется и стабилизируется на уровне 12–12,5%», — уверен г-н Осипов.

Начальник управления развития залоговых продуктов банка «Открытие» Анна Юдина тоже настроена оптимистично: «Рынок продолжит свое развитие. Ставки по программам без господдержки сейчас немногим выше ставок по программе с господдержкой. Это позволит сохранить имеющийся спрос на ипотеку».

Есть и другие мнения. «Продление программы господдержки позволило бы сохранить положительную динамику в отрасли жилищного строительства», — считает директор департамента ипотечного кредитования СМП-Банка Наталья Коняхина. «На данном этапе эффект отмены программы будет критичным для рынка. По сути в значительной степени благодаря этой программе удалось поддержать объемы выдачи ипотечных кредитов на первичном рынке и тем самым поддержать застройщиков», — констатирует директор департамента развития бизнеса Росгосстрах банка Степан Сорокин.

Почувствуйте разницу

Посмотрим на цифрах, в чем заключается разница между ипотекой с господдержкой и без нее (расчеты предоставил один из госбанков).

Возьмем квартиру стоимостью 5,5 млн руб. и первым взносом 1,1 млн руб. (20%). Срок кредита — 15 лет. С господдержкой ставка банка составит 11,4% годовых, без господдержки — 12,6%. В первом случае аннуитетный платеж — 51 тыс. руб., минимальный ежемесячный доход — 85 тыс. руб. Во втором — 55 тыс. руб. и 91 тыс. руб. соответственно. Общая переплата для ипотечника с господдержкой — 4,8 млн руб., без — 5,4 млн руб. Льготная ставка сэкономит заемщику около 611 тыс. рублей. Согласитесь, неплохо!

Но можно ли считать ставки, при которых переплата за кредитное жилье составляет 150–200%, хотя бы приемлемыми? Большинство респондентов «ЭВ» полагают, что 12–13% годовых — это вполне себе ставки, некоторые даже называют их низкими.

Вопрос риторический. И здесь не место советам: каждый заемщик в силах принять решение без сторонней поддержки. Даже если она государственная.

ЦИФРА ДНЯ

1,6 трлн руб. вложили за 6 лет в недвижимость московские дольщики, сообщил председатель Москомстройинвеста Константин Тимофеев.

Источник: mk.ru

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