Объем выданных кредитов растет при падении одобрения заявок

Объем выданных кредитов растет при падении одобрения заявок

Фото:
Максим Кимерлинг /
Коммерсантъ

Позитивная динамика, наметившаяся на рынке потребительского кредитования в последние месяцы, обеспечена отнюдь не ростом лояльности банков к заемщикам. Анализ данных бюро кредитных историй показывает, что уровень одобрения кредитных заявок снизился по сравнению со средним показателем прошлого года. Рост выдач обеспечивает само население, которое постепенно отходит от шока и возвращается к потребительской модели поведения, реализуя отложенный спрос на кредиты.

По данным бюро кредитных историй «Эквифакс» (входит в топ-3 крупнейших БКИ), с начала 2017 года, несмотря на рост объема выдач необеспеченных кредитов, в банках наблюдается снижение доли одобренных заявок. Так, если в среднем в 2016 году уровень одобрения по необеспеченным кредитам составлял 37%, за четыре месяца 2017 года он снизился на 3 п. п.— до 34%. Схожую динамику отмечают и в другом БКИ из тройки лидеров — «Объединенном кредитном бюро». По их данным, уровень одобрения банками кредитных заявок (по необеспеченным ссудам) снизился с 54% в среднем по 2016 году до 35% в 2017 году при росте количества выданных кредитов на 5% в среднем за месяц. «По нашим данным, объем выдач растет на протяжении 2016 и 2017 годов, но при этом уровень одобрения стабилен или немного снижается»,— указывает гендиректор БКИ «Эквифакс» Олег Лагуткин.

Позитивную динамику на рынке потребительского кредитования фиксирует и ЦБ. После традиционно провальных двух первых месяцев года в марте совокупный объем необеспеченных розничных кредитов вырос на 0,8%. Позитивная динамика сохранялась в кредитовании и в апреле (данные ЦБ по потребительским кредитам еще недоступны). 2 июня первый зампред ЦБ Ксения Юдаева отмечала, что есть «все предпосылки для развития необеспеченного потребительского кредитования».

Прогнозы по возвращению к позитивной динамике в потребительском кредитовании в 2017 году ранее давали и крупнейшие участники рынка. По итогам 2016 года объем необеспеченных розничных кредитов сократился на 3,1%, но в этом году банки планировали показать рост, обещая либерализацию требований к заемщикам.

Впрочем, данные БКИ показывают, что рост потребительского кредитования обеспечен не столько банками, сколько населением, которое реализует отложенный спрос на заемные средства. По словам главного экономиста «ПФ Капитал» Евгения Надоршина, есть некоторое восстановление потребительского спроса и, как результат, спроса на розничное кредитование, но банки не сильно поменяли свою политику в отношении выдач. «Доходы населения не растут, по данным Росстата, в реальном выражении за январь—апрель 2017 года они снизились на 7,1%,— указывает он.— В то же время у населения появились ожидания улучшения экономической ситуации, что провоцирует рост индекса потребительской уверенности». Однако способность заемщиков платить по кредитам, даже с учетом снижения процентных ставок, не возросла, заключает эксперт. В банках рост кредитования также связывают с повышением потребительской активности населения. «Восстановление уровня кредитования прежде всего связано с удовлетворением отложенного спроса 2015-2016 годов, у людей прошел шок от кризиса, они адаптировались к текущим реалиям»,— указывает зампред правления ОТП-банка Александр Васильев.

В целом эксперты винят в снижении уровня одобрения кредитных заявок усиление позиций госбанков на фоне расчистки рынка со стороны ЦБ. «Банковская отрасль сейчас переживает интересное время: на рынке доминируют госбанки, а в экономике в целом доминирует государство, занимая в нем от 70% до 80% по капитализации компаний и их долям рынков,— указывает аналитик ИК «Алор» Кирилл Яковенко.— Доминирование госбанков приводит к тому, что методы оценки заемщиков становятся все более консервативными, а бизнес-процессы — неторопливыми». Около 300 банков потеряли лицензии в течение последних трех лет, напоминает он.

Источник: kommersant.ru

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