Мониторинг делового климата

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Мониторинг делового климата

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Рынок кредитования малого и среднего бизнеса (МСБ) продолжает сжиматься, делает вывод агентство «Эксперт РА». В 2016 году банки выдали малым предпринимателям 5,3 трлн руб. что на 3% меньше, чем в 2015-м. Темпы этого снижения, впрочем, заметно сократились: по итогам 2015 года объемы кредитования упали на 28%. При этом портфель кредитов (остаток задолженности по основному долгу) показал сильнейшее за три года снижение — на 9%, до 4,5 трлн руб. (см. диаграмму).

В исследовании отмечается, что без льготного кредитования — «Программы 6,5%» (по такой ставке ЦБ фондирует банки, сами кредиты выдаются под 9,6% и 10,6% годовых среднему и малому бизнесу соответственно) — объем займов снизился бы на 5% вместо 3%. Портфель МСБ характеризуется высоким уровнем просроченной задолженности — ее доля составила 14,2%.

Эксперты прогнозируют, что в этом году по базовому сценарию рынок может преодолеть спад и объем портфеля вырастет на 5% — до 4,7 трлн руб. По негативному сценарию, со снижением цен на нефть и повышением ключевой ставки объем портфеля уменьшится на 5%, до 4,2 трлн руб.

В агентстве отмечают тенденцию к расслоению сегмента кредитования МСБ. Крупные банки (топ-30 по активам) в 2016 году нарастили объемы выданных кредитов на 19% (против сокращения на 32% годом ранее) — главным образом за счет льготной программы. В то же время остальные банки фактически свернули финансирование МСБ, сократив его объемы на 22%. При этом в самих крупных банках указывают на снижение спроса на кредиты со стороны предпринимателей — МСБ если и обращается, то для того, чтобы рефинансировать более дорогие займы, полученные в 2014-2015 годах.

Сам бизнес продолжает говорить о недоступности кредитования: сектор МСБ на 95% состоит из микробизнеса (численность работников до 15 человек и доход до 120 млн руб.), и банки не торопятся выдавать ему кредиты. По данным «Эксперт РА», количество заявок на кредиты в прошлом году увеличилось в 1,5 раза по сравнению с 2015 годом, при этом число заключенных договоров сократилось на 2% — мелкие предприниматели не могут получить кредит во многом из-за серой бухгалтерии.

Источник: kommersant.ru

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