Корпоративные заемщики ждут смягчения политики Банка России

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Корпоративные заемщики ждут смягчения политики Банка России

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Коммерсантъ

После всплеска активности на российском долговом рынке в декабре 2016 года в первый месяц нового года эмитенты не спешили размещать облигации. За январь они привлекли на внутреннем рынке чуть более 27 млрд руб.— минимальный объем с мая 2013 года. Заемщики ждут дальнейшего смягчения денежно-кредитной политики ЦБ, что в сочетании с сохранением благоприятной внешней конъюнктуры позволит восстановить активность на долговом рынке.

По данным агентства Cbonds, корпоративные заемщики в январе заметно сократили активность на рынке публичного долга. За месяц они провели на внутреннем рынке лишь восемь размещений на общую сумму немногим более 27 млрд руб. (без учета однодневных облигаций ВТБ). Это в девять раз меньше показателя декабря (233,3 млрд руб., не учтены размещения «Роснефти» на 600 млрд руб.) и почти вдвое меньше привлечений января 2016 года (47,7 млрд руб.). Такой низкой активности эмитентов не было с мая 2013 года, когда эмитенты провели всего девять размещений на 26 млрд руб.

Согласно статистике предшествующих лет, в начале года всегда происходило резкое падение объемов корпоративных размещений. По словам главного аналитика долговых рынков БК «Регион» Александра Ермака, низкая активность января традиционна для начала года, учитывая, что треть месяца приходится на официальные праздничные и выходные дни. К тому же корпоративные заемщики могли придерживать свой выход на первичный рынок в расчете на улучшение рыночных условий, о чем говорила динамика вторичного рынка. «Возможно, многие корпоративные эмитенты занимали выжидательные позиции, глядя на высокую активность нерезидентов на рынке ОФЗ, где доходность в первой половине месяца продолжила снижаться, сохраняя тенденции конца прошлого года»,— отмечает господин Ермак. За первые две недели января доходность десятилетних ОФЗ снизилась более чем на 0,4 п. п., до 8% годовых.

Однако ситуация на рынке начала ухудшаться после того, как первый вице-премьер РФ Игорь Шувалов объявил о планах по покупке валюты на рынке. При этом решение Минфина о начале операций на внутреннем рынке уже с начала февраля добавило негатива. «Это отразилось в существенной коррекции на рынке ОФЗ во второй половине января и привело к росту ставок на первичном и вторичном рынке»,— отмечает Александр Ермак. На последнем аукционе ОФЗ Минфину удалось реализовать облигации лишь на 36 млрд руб. из 40 млрд руб., что свидетельствует о падении интереса к госбумагам. Тем не менее министерство стало в январе крупнейшим заемщиком на первичном рынке — на трех аукционах ОФЗ оно привлекло более 119 млрд руб. Этот показатель почти вдвое больше результата января 2016 года. Активность Минфина логична, есть некоторая необходимость в привлечении, а спрос на бумаги еще достаточно высокий, отмечает инвестиционный директор подразделения B&N Exclusive Бинбанка Роман Серпенинов. В текущем году Минфин планирует разместить ОФЗ более чем на 1,55 трлн руб., что в полтора раза больше объема, привлеченного в 2016 году (1,03 трлн руб.).

Вместе с тем участники рынка ожидают улучшения конъюнктуры долгового рынка. Ключевыми факторами, определяющими поведение эмитентов и уровень ставок, станут общая ситуация на рынках долгового капитала, снижение ставки ЦБ, наличие ликвидности у инвесторов и глобальная экономическая конъюнктура. «В целом в 2017 году мы ожидаем существенного увеличения объема размещений российскими заемщиками по сравнению с прошлым годом»,— резюмировал руководитель управления рынков долгового капитала «ВТБ Капитал» Андрей Соловьев.

Источник: kommersant.ru

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