Корпоративные — сворачивают активность, региональные — наращивают

Корпоративные — сворачивают активность, региональные — наращивают

Фото:
Олег Харсеев /

Коммерсантъ

После всплеска активности, произошедшего на российском долговом рынке в октябре, в ноябре наблюдалось охлаждение. За месяц корпоративные заемщики привлекли в полтора раза ниже результата октября — на локальном рынке 90 млрд руб. и $2 млрд на внешнем рынке — на фоне локального роста ставок после президентских выборов в США. Отчасти предложение бондов на российском рынке заместили субъекты федерации, которые традиционно привлекают средства в последние месяцы года.

Согласно предварительным данным агентства Cbonds, корпоративные заемщики заметно сократили объем привлеченных средств на публичном рынке. В ноябре на внутреннем рынке они привлекли менее 90 млрд руб. (не учтены данные по размещениям однодневных облигаций ВТБ, см. справку), что на 40% ниже показателя октября. На внешнем рынке было проведено четыре размещения на $1,99 млрд, против шести размещений на $3,15 млрд месяцем ранее. «Традиционно к концу года активность эмитентов и инвесторов на рынках долгового капитала снижается»,— отмечает руководитель управления рынков долгового капитала «ВТБ Капитал» Андрей Соловьев.

Снижению активности корпоративных эмитентов на первичном рынке способствовало и некоторое ухудшение рыночной конъюнктуры, произошедшее после победы на президентских выборах в США Дональда Трампа. Опасения на рынках вызывает экономическая программа республиканца, которая может привести как к росту экономики страны, так и к ускорению инфляции. «Ожидания более мягкой фискальной политики и более жесткой монетарной политики привели к ралли доллара и американских акций, а активы развивающихся рынков, и российские облигации в частности, оказались под ощутимым давлением»,— отмечает младший аналитик Sberbank Investment Research Александр Голынский. По итогам ноября доходности облигаций компаний первого эшелона выросли на 0,5-1 процентных пункта. В таких условиях интерес эмитентов к заемным средствам снизился. По словам директора департамента рынков долгового капитала Росбанка Антона Кирюхина, большинство компаний, которые планировали сделки в этом году, не стали откладывать их на конец года, поскольку в любом случае они осознавали существенную вероятность повышения базовой ставки в декабре.

Снижение активности корпоративных заемщиков частично компенсировали субъекты федерации, которые привлекли рекордный объем средств на рынке облигаций. По итогам минувшего месяца объем размещений составил 67 млрд руб., что в девять раз выше показателя октября. Этот результат почти в полтора раза больше предыдущего максимума (47 млрд руб.), установленного в октябре 2014 года. Сказывается сезонность привлечения средств российскими регионами, когда львиная доля размещений приходится на последние месяцы года. «Регионам необходимо больше ресурсов к концу года, поскольку именно в этот период традиционно происходит основное расходование бюджетных средств»,— указывает Антон Кирюхин. Кроме того, текущие ставки и сроки привлечения денежных средств, по словам главного аналитика по долговым рынкам БК «Регион» Александра Ермака, стали более конкурентоспособными по сравнению с банковскими кредитами и более привлекательными для регионов. По его оценке, заимствование для регионов с высоким кредитным качеством происходит по ставкам, предполагающим спрэд к ОФЗ в пределах 90-140 базисных пунктов, что в два-три раза ниже, чем годом ранее.

До конца года участники рынка ожидают сохранения высокой активности российских регионов. «Мы ожидаем до конца текущего года реализацию еще целого ряда проектов на облигационном рынке, в том числе новых и знакомых рынку регионов-эмитентов»,— отмечает Александр Ермак. В частности, в декабре Ямало-Ненецкий автономный округ планирует разместить семилетние бонды на 20 млрд руб. Одновременно в сегменте корпоративных заемщиков участники рынка ожидают сохранения невысокой активности. При этом важное значение для рынка будет иметь декабрьское заседание ФРС, по итогам которого (с вероятностью в 100%, по данным Bloomberg) ключевая ставка будет повышена. Само повышение уже заложено в цены, и внимание инвесторов будет приковано к комментариям регулятора, которые могут дать сигнал относительно темпов повышения в следующем году. Дополнительную нервозность инвесторам добавляет намеченный на воскресенье референдум в Италии. «Многие участники рынка, которые инвестируют в облигации emerging markets, в декабре решат не занимать новые рискованные позиции. На этом фоне оживление первичного рынка еврооблигаций в декабре маловероятно»,— отмечает Александр Голынский.

Источник: kommersant.ru

160 комментариев

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