Защита от Трампа: какие американские акции устойчивы к колебаниям рынка

Защита от Трампа: какие американские акции устойчивы к колебаниям рынка

Фото: DANIEL ROLAND / AFP

Трехмесячное ралли на фондовом рынке США завершилось снижением ключевых индексов. Аналитики связывают это с политикой нового президента США Дональда Трампа. Какие американские акции наименее подвержены волатильности?

Понедельник, 30 января, оказался худшим днем для американского рынка с начала года: по итогам торговой сессии фондовые индексы Dow Jones Industrial Average и S&P 500 снизились на 0,61%, а индикатор высокотехнологичных компаний NASDAQ Composite — на 0,83%. Дневное ​снижение Dow Jones стало максимальным с середины октября 2016 года, тогда как индексы S&P 500 и NASDAQ показали наибольшее снижение с 28 и 30 декабря соответственно.

В целом, за исключением разового снижения S&P 500 и NASDAQ в конце года, в последние три месяца на фондовом рынке США наблюдался восходящий тренд — так называемое ралли Трампа: инвесторы массово покупали акции в расчете на то, что новый американский президент начнет реализацию своей экономической программы. На этих ожиданиях промышленный индекс Dow Jones несколько раз обновил исторические максимумы, шагнув на прошлой неделе за отметку 20 тыс. пунктов. Его рост с 9 ноября (дата оглашения победы Трампа на выборах) составил 7,4%. Индексы S&P 500 и NASDAQ за этот же период поднялись на 5,4 и 6,9% соответственно.

Текущую коррекцию на американском рынке аналитики связывают с последними решениями Дональда Трампа в сфере миграционной политики. В пятницу, 27 января, он подписал указ о приостановке программы приема беженцев с Ближнего Востока на 120 дней, а из Сирии — на неопределенный срок. Также был запрещен въезд в США гражданам семи мусульманских стран на 90 дней с возможностью продления запрета. Эта инициатива Трампа вылилась в конфликт с и.о. министра юстиции США (генерального прокурора) Салли Йейтс, которая раскритиковала решение президента. В результате Йейтс была уволена.

По словам директора по инвестициям в компании People's United Wealth Management Джона Конлона, инвесторы не ожидали столь резких действий со стороны администрации Трампа. «Тот факт, что такая серьезная мера была введена настолько быстро, стал источником неопределенности на рынке», — прокомментировал он. В свою очередь, экономист «ВТБ Капитала» Нейл Маккинон отмечает, что инвесторы в США потеряли ощущение контроля над ситуацией. «Долгое время главным фактором влияния на рынки акций в США были заявления и действия Федрезерва. Однако теперь таким фактором стала политика Трампа», — пишет эксперт.

«Правило десяти»

Инвестиционный банк Goldman Sachs также обеспокоен растущим влиянием Трампа на динамику фондового рынка США. В такой ситуации в конце января банк в своей клиентской рассылке рекомендовал инвесторам вкладываться в акции с сильными фундаментальными показателями, которые смогут показать рост безотносительно к политике нового президента. По словам стратега Goldman Sachs Джона Костина, при выборе бумаг нужно ориентироваться на так называемое «правило десяти», которое опирается на три ключевых критерия. Во-первых, на протяжении последних двух лет компания-эмитент должна была увеличивать объем продаж хотя бы на 10% в год, во-вторых, у нее должен быть положительный прогноз по динамике продаж на следующие два года — от 10% в год (по оценкам Goldman Sachs или других инвестбанков),  и, в-третьих, консенсус-прогноз аналитиков по прибыли этой компании на ближайший год должен предполагать рост минимум на 10%.

По оценкам Goldman Sachs, сейчас этим критериям соответствуют онлайн-гипермаркет Amazon.com, потоковые сервисы Pandora Media и Netflix, служба интернет-доставки GrubHub, владелец поисковой системы Google — Alphabet, социальная сеть Twitter и платежный сервис PayPal.

Выборочная проверка показала: «правило десяти» работает. Так, выручка Amazon.com в 2014 и 2015 годы росла примерно на 20% ежегодно. По итогам 2016 года ожидается ее рост на 27% в годовом выражении, а в 2017 году — на 23%. При этом консенсус-прогноз аналитиков, опрошенных исследовательской компанией Zacks Investment Research, предполагает увеличение чистой прибыли компании в 2017 году почти на 90%.

У компании Pandora продажи выросли на 28% в 2015 году и на 19% в 2016 году, а по итогам текущего года эксперты ожидают дальнейшего увеличения выручки — на 22%. Вместе с тем онлайн-сервис третий год подряд завершает с чистым убытком. Тем не менее в 2017 году ожидается его сокращение на 16%, так что формально «правило десяти» Pandora выполняет. Корпорация Alphabet увеличила выручку в 2015 году на 33%, а в 2016 году — на 20,3%. В 2017 году от нее ждут динамики в 15%. Чистая прибыль Alphabet, согласно прогнозу Zacks, должна увеличиться по итогам текущего года на 20,4%.

Защитные активы

Начальник департамента торговых операций ИК «Фридом Финанс» Игорь Клюшнев напоминает, что на американском рынке традиционно считаются защитными активами акции коммунальных компаний — поставщиков газа и электроэнергии. Во время колебаний на фондовых биржах инвесторы наращивают доли в этих бумагах точно так же, как в казначейских облигациях США и золоте. Поэтому акции коммунальных компаний растут даже во время снижения индексов широкого рынка. «Если в данный момент индекс S&P 500 снижается на 0,31%, то коммунальный сектор демонстрирует рост на 1%», — говорит Клюшнев. По его мнению, оптимальным вложением для инвестора могут стать бумаги трех крупнейших игроков этого сектора — Southern Company, Duke Energy Corporation и NextEra Energy. Российскому инвестору, который хочет получить максимальный охват этого сектора, лучше купить бумаги отраслевого ETF — Utilities SPDR (XLU), который инвестирует в самые ликвидные акции «коммунальщиков», добавляет Клюшнев.

Защита от Трампа: какие американские акции устойчивы к колебаниям рынка

Победа технологий

Управляющий активами УК «БКС» Никита Емельянов поддерживает подход Goldman Sachs, отмечая, что технологический сектор является лучшим убежищем для инвестора на этот год. «Структура доходов у IT-компаний диверсифицирована по регионам и валютам, поэтому внутренние риски США меньше влияют на котировки этих акций, позволяя им показывать лучшую динамику, чем широкий рынок», — говорит Емельянов. По его мнению, инвестору также стоит обратить внимание на акции производителя микропроцессоров Intel, которые сейчас находятся на привлекательных ценовых уровнях. «Эта компания улучшила корпоративное управление, теперь от нее ждут и увеличения операционных показателей», — подытоживает финансист. 

Источник: rbc.ru

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