Сколько можно заработать на IPO владельца Snapchat

В феврале корпорация Snap Inc., владеющая популярным сервисом Snapchat, подала документы на проведение IPO. Уже в марте компания разместит свои акции на Нью-Йоркской фондовой бирже. Чего ждать инвестору от этой сделки?

На прошлой неделе корпорация Snap Inc. — владелец мессенджера Snapchat и разработчик «умных» очков Spectacles, способных записывать короткие видеоролики, — раскрыла финансовые и операционные показатели для инвесторов в преддверии IPO, запланированного на март этого года. Как оказалось, в 2016 году выручка компании выросла в 7 раз по сравнению с предыдущим годом, достигнув $404,4 млн против ожидаемых $350 млн. Дневная аудитория пользователей Snapchat увеличилась почти на 50% по сравнению с 2015 годом, до 158 млн человек, — это больше, чем, например, у соцсети Twitter (140 млн).

На предстоящем IPO, которое пройдет под тиккером SNAP на Нью-Йоркской фондовой бирже (NYSE), корпорация надеется разместить акции на $3 млрд. Это позволяет считать сделку одним из крупнейших размещений в 2017 году. На последнем раунде финансирования в первой половине прошлого года Snap Inc. смогла привлечь $1,8 млрд, после чего ее капитализация достигла $16 млрд. По оценкам The Wall Street Journal, в ходе мартовского размещения стоимость компании может вырасти до $25 млрд.

Стоит отметить, что потенциал Snap Inc. высоко оценили на рынке еще в 2013 году, когда о своем желании приобрести сервис Snapchat заявила социальная сеть Facebook. Компания Марка Цукерберга пыталась купить это приложение за астрономические $3 млрд, но в итоге получила отказ. Социальный сервис Snapchat предназначен для обмена онлайн фото- и видеофайлами вместе с короткими текстовыми комментариями в режиме реального времени. Особенность сообщений в мессенджере состоит в том, что они самоуничтожаются спустя 10 секунд после просмотра. Это приравнивает общение в соцсети к живому диалогу. Кроме того, в Snapchat можно выложить видеоисторию, которая в течение суток будет доступна всем пользователям социальной сети.

Приложение необычайно популярно в США и Европе: дневная аудитория в этих регионах составляет 68 и 52 млн человек соответственно. Согласно исследованию Edison Research, весной прошлого года Snapchat стал второй по популярности социальной сетью в США после Facebook. Сервис интересен прежде всего молодой аудитории: 45% его пользователей относятся к возрастной категории 18–24 лет. Это поколение быстро набирает покупательную способность и проявляет интерес к онлайн-шопингу, что находит отражение в виде роста объема рекламы в Snapchat.

В приложении уже появились страницы ретейлеров одежды и спортивных товаров, ресторанов и пиццерий. Также в нем активно работают медиахолдинги: американские спортивные каналы транслируют в соцсети видео с матчей и тренировок. В январе 2015 года в приложении была запущена функция Snap Discovery, которая привлекла в социальную сеть такие медиаконцерны, как Cosmopolitan, National Geographic и CNN. Однако Snap ожидает, что именно сегмент мобильной рекламы останется главным драйвером роста для ее бизнеса. В 2017 году корпорация рассчитывает увеличить годовую выручку до $1 млрд. Такая динамика будет возможной за счет быстрого роста мирового рынка мобильной рекламы, продажи которой утроились в 2016 году до $66 млрд, а в 2020 году могут достичь $196 млрд, отмечается в проспекте IPO Snap.

В краткосрочных и среднесрочных рамках вложения в Snap Inc. выглядят оправданными с временным горизонтом в три-пять месяцев. Их потенциальная доходность может составить 25–30% — даже при условии, что акции на IPO будут размещены по верхней границе ценового диапазона. Это, впрочем, не означает, что в бумаги Snap нельзя будет вкладываться на долгосрочную перспективу. Когда ажиотаж вокруг размещения компании сойдет на нет и ее котировки покажут коррекцию — у инвестора будет возможность купить их по более привлекательной цене. Этих более выгодных точек входа следует ожидать во второй половине 2017 года.

Единственное, что может вызвать тревогу у инвестора в связи с публичным размещением Snap — это прибыль компании. По итогам 2016 года компания зафиксировала чистый убыток в $515 млн при выручке $404,4 млн — это на 60% больше, чем в 2015 году. Однако высокие темы роста продаж (700% в 2016 году) позволяют надеяться, что в 2017 году корпорация выйдет на запланированный ею показатель в $1 млрд. В этом случае убыток Snap начнет сокращаться, а по итогам 2018 года компания имеет все шансы выйти в плюс. Впрочем, это обстоятельство важно, скорее, при покупке акций компании в рамках долгосрочной стратегии. Однако долгосрочному инвестору надо будет внимательно следить за тем, насколько оправдывают себя прогнозы Snap по собственной выручке.

Также инвестору стоит обратить внимание на замедление квартального роста аудитории Snapchat. В четвертом квартале он составил всего 3,2%, тогда как в третьем квартале число пользователей сервиса увеличилось на 7% по сравнению с предыдущим кварталом. Впрочем, и это обстоятельство можно рассматривать как следствие опережающего роста аудитории в предыдущие годы: в 2015–2016 годах он составлял 50% в год. Дальнейшая динамика прироста числа пользователей Snapchat будет зависеть от того, насколько сервис преуспеет в покорении рынков за пределами Европы и Северной Америки. Пока Snap не намерена отказываться от глобальной экспансии. 

Источник: rbc.ru

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