Сезон тревоги: в какие активы инвестировать во втором квартале

Сезон тревоги: в какие активы инвестировать во втором квартале

Фото: Константин Юганов / Lori

В какие активы лучше всего инвестировать во втором квартале этого года? По просьбе РБК на этот вопрос ответили финансовые аналитики и портфельные управляющие

С начала года индекс ММВБ снизился на 8,58%, а курс рубля укрепился на 8,04% к доллару и на 5,34% — к евро. Усилению позиций российской валюты не помешали даже регулярные интервенции Минфина с февраля этого года, а также ужесточение монетарной политики в США и снижение ключевой ставки Банка России в марте. Опрошенные РБК эксперты связывают рост курса рубля с активным применением стратегий carry trade (игры на разнице процентных ставок) на валютном рынке и улучшением динамики цен на нефть. С начала года нефть марки Brent подорожала на 2,04%, до $54,36 за баррель.

Во втором квартале на финансовые рынки будет влиять сложившаяся неопределенность, связанная с президентскими выборами в Европе, процедурой выхода Великобритании из Евросоюза и итогами политики Трампа, отмечают опрошенные финансисты. Также, по их мнению, в этот период Федрезерв США продолжит постепенное повышение процентных ставок, тогда как Банк России будет смягчать монетарную политику, снижая ключевую ставку. В этих условиях инвесторы смогут найти привлекательные точки входа в акции и облигации, но им не стоит забывать и про защитные активы — золото, швейцарский франк и некоторые ценные бумаги, следует из опроса экспертов.

Акции

Среди акций во втором квартале стоит обратить особое внимание на бумаги компаний, выплачивающих щедрые дивиденды, говорит портфельный управляющий ФГ «Финам» Алексей Белкин. Он отметил, что большинство госкомпаний пока не выплачивают акционерам установленный законом минимум в 50% от чистой прибыли, однако в скором времени ситуация может измениться. В частности, эксперт ожидает проведения обещанного еще в марте заседания правительства по этому вопросу. Пока Белкин рекомендует следить за голубыми фишками российского рынка, среди которых немало дивидендных бумаг. Директор по инвестициям «Универ Капитала» Дмитрий Александров уточняет, что неплохой инвестиционной идеей в этом свете выглядят акции «Газпрома». Их цена находится на исторически низких уровнях, а дивидендная доходность оценивается почти в 9%. «Газпром» — единственная госкомпания, которая платит дивиденды сейчас и точно будет платить их потом», — заключает финансист. Также Александров выделяет акции «Аэрофлота», ФСК и АЛРОСА.

На американском рынке во втором квартале также будут привлекательные активы для покупки. По словам управляющего активами УК БКС Никиты Емельянова, из-за вероятного повышения процентной ставки ФРС в апреле—мае на рынке складываются неплохие условия для долгосрочных инвестиций в долларовые активы. «Если у инвестора нет возможностей и временных ресурсов изучать рынок, то самый лучший вариант — это биржевой инвестиционный фонд (ETF) на индекс. Мне больше всего нравится текущая ситуация с индикатором NASDAQ, но S&P 500 тоже выглядит привлекательно», — говорит эксперт. С начала года индекс NASDAQ вырос на 8,02%, до 5864,48 пункта, а S&P 500 — на 4,21%, до 23 522,95 пункта. Одним из наиболее известных ETF на индикатор NASDAQ является PowerShares QQQ — с начала года его бумаги подорожали на 10,4%, а среди биржевых фондов на S&P 500 — SPDR S&P 500 ETF, который прибавил в цене 4,24%.

Облигации

В конце марта Госдума и Совет Федерации освободили частных инвесторов от уплаты НДФЛ на купонный доход по корпоративным облигациям, выпущенным в период с 1 января 2017 года по 31 декабря 2020 года. В связи с этим реальная доходность долговых бумаг, выпущенных после 1 января 2017 года, резко повысилась. Пока список облигаций, подходящих под критерии нового закона, остается более чем скромным. В настоящее время на Московской бирже торгуются только 14–15 ликвидных выпусков облигаций из числа эмитированных в 2017 году. По мнению главного аналитика по долговым рынкам БК «Регион» Александра Ермака, среди них стоит обратить внимание на долговые бумаги «Транснефти» («Траснефть БО-001Р-05»), МТС («МТС 001Р-01») и ГТЛК («ГТЛК 001Р-03»)

Ведущий специалист отдела доверительного управления «КИТ Финанс Брокер» Владимир Капустянский считает, что помимо новых корпоративных облигаций стоит присмотреться к шестому выпуску бумаг «Газпром Капитала», третьему выпуску банка «Открытие» и первому выпуску группы ПИК. Кроме того, эксперт рекомендует длинные инвестиции в ОФЗ серий 26212 и 26216. В свою очередь, портфельный управляющий ФГ «Финам» Алексей Белкин рекомендует краткосрочные инвестиции в бумаги Внешэкономбанка и компании «Полюс Золото». По его мнению, во втором квартале вкладываться в долгие облигации не разумно.

Валюта

Большинство опрошенных РБК экспертов сошлись во мнении, что продолжительное укрепление рубля во втором квартале маловероятно. Этому будет способствовать сезонный фактор (рубль растет в начале года и показывает более слабую динамику весной) и рост рублевой ликвидности на рынке, отмечает заместитель генерального директора по инвестиционному анализу ИК «Церих Кэпитал Менеджмент» Андрей Верников.​ Он прогнозирует курс рубля к лету на уровне 61 руб./долл. Впрочем, руководитель центра макроэкономического анализа Альфа-банка Наталья Орлова отмечает, что риторика президента США Дональда Трампа и представителей Федрезерва демонстрирует заинтересованность в более слабом долларе, так что значительного укрепления американской валюты ожидать не стоит.

Главный эксперт центра экономического прогнозирования Газпромбанка Егор Сусин добавляет, что сейчас пришло время для краткосрочных инвестиций в евро. Также, по словам аналитика, инвестору стоит обратить внимание на британский фунт. Из-за последовавшего за Brexit обвала эта валюта торгуется на привлекательных ценовых уровнях и может стать хорошей долгосрочной инвестицией, однако ее дальнейшая динамика упирается в отношения Великобритании и ЕС после выхода страны из Евросоюза, говорит Сусин. Еще одной хорошей долгосрочной инвестицией он считает покупку швейцарского франка, который, по мнению аналитика, остается недооцененным.

Золото

Эксперты предупреждают, что во втором квартале финансовые рынки могут столкнуться с чередой потрясений: в апреле состоятся президентские выборы во Франции, в июне — парламентские в Италии, а в сентябре будут выбирать членов бундестага в Германии. Усиление позиций социал-демократов в Германии и растущая популярность кандидата Марин Ле Пен во Франции вызывают тревогу у участников рынка. Налоговые реформы Дональда Трампа и его противостояние торговой политике Китая, а также последствия Brexit добавляют неопределенности на рынке, говорит старший аналитик «Альпари» Роман Ткачук.

По его словам, на этом фоне возрастает спрос за защитные активы, в том числе на золото. Эксперт советует держать от 10 до 30% сбережений в золоте. «Для хеджирования биржевых рисков предпочтительным вариантом являются слитки и инвестиционные монеты (последние не облагаются НДС и достаточно ликвидны). Покупая золото через биржевые инструменты (фьючерс или акции), нужно понимать, что вы принимаете на себя риски сбоя работы биржи», — рассказывает эксперт.

В настоящее время золото торгуется около отметки $1248,50 за унцию, однако Верников из «Церих Кэпитал Менеджмент» прогнозирует рост стоимости металла до $1310 за унцию во втором квартале. Не исключает подъема до уровня $1300–1350 за унцию до конца мая и Ткачук из «Альпари». Более смелый прогноз дает вице-президент «Золотого монетного дома» Алексей Вязовский: по его оценкам, золото подорожает до $1400 за унцию. Эксперт связывает это с возможным усилением геополитических рисков: возвращение Сирии и Украины в повестку дня, а также распространение политики отрицательных процентных ставок в мире. По версии аналитиков лондонской консультационной компании GFMS, среднегодовая цена на унцию золота в 2017 году составит $1259 за унцию. При этом они считают, что в более долгосрочной перспективе цены на золото продолжат расти, несмотря на препятствие в виде растущих ставок ФРС США. 

Источник: rbc.ru

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If you’re still on the fence: grab your favorite earphones, head down to a Best Buy and ask to plug them into a Zune then an iPod and see which one sounds better to you, and which interface makes you smile more. Then you’ll know which is right for you.

The new Zune browser is surprisingly good, but not as good as the iPod’s. It works well, but isn’t as fast as Safari, and has a clunkier interface. If you occasionally plan on using the web browser that’s not an issue, but if you’re planning to browse the web alot from your PMP then the iPod’s larger screen and better browser may be important.

Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

Between me and my husband we’ve owned more MP3 players through the years than I will count, including Sansas, iRivers, iPods (classic & touch), the Ibiza Rhapsody, etc. But, the previous couple of years I’ve settled down to one distinct players. Why? Because I was happy to discover how well-designed and fun to use the underappreciated (and widely mocked) Zunes are.

This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of «neighbors» will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune «Social» is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.

I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

This is getting a bit more subjective, but I much prefer the Zune Marketplace. The interface is colorful, has more flair, and some cool features like ‘Mixview’ that let you quickly see related albums, songs, or other users related to what you’re listening to. Clicking on one of those will center on that item, and another set of «neighbors» will come into view, allowing you to navigate around exploring by similar artists, songs, or users. Speaking of users, the Zune «Social» is also great fun, letting you find others with shared tastes and becoming friends with them. You then can listen to a playlist created based on an amalgamation of what all your friends are listening to, which is also enjoyable. Those concerned with privacy will be relieved to know you can prevent the public from seeing your personal listening habits if you so choose.

Sorry for the huge review, but I’m really loving the new Zune, and hope this, as well as the excellent reviews some other people have written, will help you decide if it’s the right choice for you.

I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

The Zune concentrates on being a Portable Media Player. Not a web browser. Not a game machine. Maybe in the future it’ll do even better in those areas, but for now it’s a fantastic way to organize and listen to your music and videos, and is without peer in that regard. The iPod’s strengths are its web browsing and apps. If those sound more compelling, perhaps it is your best choice.

Apple now has Rhapsody as an app, which is a great start, but it is currently hampered by the inability to store locally on your iPod, and has a dismal 64kbps bit rate. If this changes, then it will somewhat negate this advantage for the Zune, but the 10 songs per month will still be a big plus in Zune Pass’ favor.

Hands down, Apple’s app store wins by a mile. It’s a huge selection of all sorts of apps vs a rather sad selection of a handful for Zune. Microsoft has plans, especially in the realm of games, but I’m not sure I’d want to bet on the future if this aspect is important to you. The iPod is a much better choice in that case.

I’ll gear this review to 2 types of people: current Zune owners who are considering an upgrade, and people trying to decide between a Zune and an iPod. (There are other players worth considering out there, like the Sony Walkman X, but I hope this gives you enough info to make an informed decision of the Zune vs players other than the iPod line as well.)

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