На чем инвесторы могли заработать в 2016 году

На чем инвесторы могли заработать в 2016 году

Фото: Lori

В течение года РБК оценивал доходность различных инвестиций для частных инвесторов. Какие вложения оказались выгодными в 2016 году?

Для расчетов берем условную сумму — 100 тыс. руб. ежемесячно и смотрим, сколько можно было заработать, вложив ее в разные активы. По итогам года доходными оказались всего три инструмента. Лучшим вариантом стали акции российских компаний и депозиты в рублях, худшей инвестицией — валюта.

Акции

Наиболее выгодной долгосрочной инвестицией в этом году было вложение в российские акции: индекс ММВБ с начала года вырос с 1735 до 2183 пунктов. Если бы инвестор в январе вложил в акции 100 тыс. руб., то в конце года стоимость его портфеля составила бы более 125 тыс. руб. Сильнее всего выросли акции ФСК ЕЭС: в январе одна стоила 0,06 руб., а к концу года — 0,2 руб., то есть итоговый рост составил 224%.

Рост на российском рынке во многом вызван эффектом низкой базы, говорит управляющий директор консалтинговой компании Arbat Capital Алексей Голубович. В первые месяцы цены на нефть и курс рубля были на очень низком уровне, что определяло низкие цены на российские активы, однако впоследствии и нефть и рубль начали понемногу укрепляться, из-за чего стали расти и российские акции, поясняет он. В будущем на российском фондовом рынке продолжится рост, который может сдержать только сильная коррекция на мировых площадках, считает Голубович. Лучшей стратегией при таком развитии событий будет покупка акций тех компаний, что платят высокие дивиденды, говорит эксперт. В следующем году согласно проекту закона о бюджете крупные дивиденды инвесторам должны будут выплачивать госкомпании. В их числе, например, ВТБ, «Газпром», «Транснефть» и «Россети».

На чем инвесторы могли заработать в 2016 году

Депозиты

В начале года средняя ставка по рублевым депозитам на год составляла 9,8% годовых, а в некоторых крупных банках доходила до 12%. Поэтому в конце срока инвестор, открывший вклад на 100 тыс. руб. в январе, мог получить около 10 тыс. руб. за счет процентов по депозиту.

Валютные депозиты оказались плохой инвестицией. Если бы инвестор открыл в начале года депозит в долларах, то в декабре его сбережения при пересчете в рубли уменьшились бы почти на 15 тыс. руб. Убыток от хранения денег на вкладе в евро был бы еще больше — почти 19 тыс. руб. Такой результат объясняется укреплением российской валюты относительно европейской и американской: если в январе официальный курс евро составлял почти 79,6 руб., то в декабре — 63,7 руб., а доллар подешевел с 73 до 60,9 руб.

В следующем году рублевые депозиты останутся более выгодным вложением средств по сравнению с валютными вкладами, считает главный аналитик Промсвязьбанка Дмитрий Монастыршин. «Это будет обеспечено за счет более высоких ставок по рублевым депозитам при сильном курсе рубля», — объясняет он. Рублевые вклады станут более доходными, несмотря на то что ставки по ним будут по-прежнему снижаться, а по вкладам в долларах расти из-за повышения ставки ФРС, говорит эксперт. По его прогнозам, в следующем году ставка по вкладам в рублях снизится еще на 1–1,5 п.п., а по долларам увеличится на 0,25–0,75 п.п.

ПИФы

Паевые инвестфонды оказались последним доходным инструментом в этом году. Портфель из бумаг десяти крупнейших по объему активов открытых ПИФов, которые учитываются РБК, к концу года вырос бы на 3,88%. Самую большую доходность показал ПИФ «Резервный» под управлением компании «Система Капитал»: к концу года он подорожал более чем на 20%, до 74 руб. А инвестор, купивший паи фонда «Сбербанк-Биотехнологии», потерял бы чуть меньше трети от вложенной суммы. В декабре стоимость пая снизилась до 793 руб., при том что в начале года бумагу можно было купить за 1113 руб.

По мнению начальника управления инвестиций УК «Райффайзен Капитал» Владимира Веденеева, в следующем году доходность облигационных ПИФов составит около 8–9% годовых, а ПИФов акций — 10–15%. Покупать ПИФы, по его словам, стоит на долгий срок. «Мы традиционно рекомендуем покупать фонды облигаций на срок от года, а фонды акций — от трех лет», — говорит Веденеев.

Недвижимость

Цены на недвижимость в этом году не выросли. При покупке готовой квартиры в Москве потери инвестора составили бы почти 5%: в ноябре средняя стоимость квадратного метра, по данным Irn.ru, составляла чуть менее 175 тыс. руб., а в январе могла доходить до 180 тыс. руб. Однако фактические цены сделок отличаются от заявленных, поскольку без скидок продать квартиру в этом году очень сложно: предложение превышает спрос, говорит руководитель «ИРН-Консалтинг» Татьяна Калюжнова. «Цена на новостройки весь год стоит на месте, в районе 195–200 тыс. руб. за квадратный метр. Но из-за акций, я думаю, фактическая цена сделок была ниже, чем в прошлом году. На вторичном рынке фактическая цена также ниже заявленной: торг достигает 10%», — рассказывает она.

В следующем году цены могут продолжить снижаться: по словам Калюжновой, новые квартиры могут дешеветь из-за большого объема нераспроданного жилья, а квартиры на вторичном рынке сильно переоценены. В ближайшие несколько лет, по прогнозам «ИРН-Консалтинг», цены на новостройки в Москве могут снизиться до 170 тыс. руб. за 1 кв. м, а на вторичное жилье — до 150 тыс. руб.

Драгметаллы

Убыточными для российских инвесторов в этом году оказались также инвестиции в золото и серебро, хотя их цена в этом году выросла. Стоимость обоих металлов на международном рынке выражается в долларах, и с начала года золото подорожало с $1062 до 1138 за унцию, а серебро — с $14 до почти 16 за унцию. Поэтому американский инвестор выиграл бы на вложениях в драгоценные металлы, а российский из-за снижения курса доллара, наоборот, проиграл бы.
В итоге 100 тыс. руб., вложенных в золото, к концу года превратились бы в 89,5 тыс. руб., а потери на серебре были бы меньше — всего 5 тыс. руб. «Если инвестор планирует инвестировать в золото рублевые средства, то необходимо учесть и ожидания по курсу рубля. Если ожидается укрепления рубля, то доход инвестора в рублевом измерении будет меньше, чем рост стоимости золота в долларах», — поясняет главный аналитик Нордеа Банка Ольга Лапшина.

В следующем году золото может быть привлекательным инструментом для инвесторов, рассказывает Лапшина. «Мы прогнозируем рост цены на золото в рамках 10% в долларах при сохранении относительно стабильного курса рубля, что делает золото довольно интересной инвестицией», — заявляет аналитик.

Валюта

Худшей инвестицией года стала покупка валюты. С учетом курса в московских банках (в расчетах РБК учитывается самое выгодное предложение по данным сервиса «Рынок наличной валюты». — РБК) потери инвестора составили бы 17,6 тыс. руб. при покупке долларов и более 21 тыс. руб. при покупке евро в начале этого года.

При этом в следующем году рубль будет относительно стабилен, считает Голубович из Arbat Capital. Укрепление невыгодно для бюджета и во многом курс в следующем году будет зависеть не от рыночных факторов, а от политики Центрального банка, говорит он. Директор по анализу финансовых рынков и макроэкономики УК «Альфа-Капитал» Владимир Брагин менее оптимистичен: он считает, что хорошим для рубля будет первое полугодие, а в дальнейшем курс может измениться. При негативном сценарии он может подняться до 65 руб. за доллар.

Американские акции

С начала 2016 года американский фондовый индикатор S&P 500 вырос на 17,8%, до 2263,79 пункта. Среди акций в портфеле индекса наибольший рост показали бумаги разработчика софта Nvidia, подорожавшие с января на 230%, до $109,78, и нефтегазовой компании Oneok — на 138%, до $58,69 за штуку. В число лидеров по доходности также вошли акции одного из крупнейших производителей меди и золота в мире Freeport-McMoRan (85%), энергетической компании Spectra Energy (74%) и горнодобывающей корпорации Newmont Mining (73%). А вот главными аутсайдерами в расчетной базе S&P 500 оказались акции фармацевтического гиганта Endo International, просевшие на 75%, а также производителя солнечных батарей First Solar и туристического сервиса Tripadvisor — минус 51 и 45% соответственно.

Управляющий активами УК «БКС» Никита Емельянов отмечает, что текущий год оказался довольно непростым для биотехнологических компаний, в первую очередь из-за президентских выборов в США. В ожидании победы Хиллари Клинтон, которая неоднократно обвиняла производителей лекарств в искусственном завышении цен, инвесторы активно продавали акции этих компаний. В результате их котировки упали на десятки процентов и не скорректировались даже после победы Трампа. Однако в целом американский рынок выиграл от повышения процентных ставок в США, показав неплохую динамику, добавляет финансист. По мнению Емельянова, в следующем году индекс S&P 500 может вырасти еще на 10% от текущего уровня. Этому будут способствовать как политика ФРС по повышению процентных ставок, так и реализация президентской программы Трампа, направленной на поддержку крупного бизнеса в стране, поясняет он. 

Источник: rbc.ru

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