Маяк для инвестора: как название хедж-фонда влияет на его доходность

Маяк для инвестора: как название хедж-фонда влияет на его доходность

Фото: Ahmed Jadallah / Reuters

Профессиональные инвесторы нередко выбирают хедж-фонды, ориентируясь лишь на их названия, говорится в исследовании американских и финских ученых. Какие слова-маяки привлекают инвесторов и стоит ли ими руководствоваться?

Квалифицированные инвесторы тоже поддаются на маркетинговые уловки — например, на привлекательные названия хедж-фондов. Из-за них инвесторы даже могут игнорировать объективные характеристики фонда вроде соотношения доходности и риска, пишут авторы исследования «Притоки средств в хедж-фонды и названия-маяки» из Нью-Йоркского университета в Буффало и университета Оулу в Финляндии. На эту работу ученых вдохновила телепередача английского дуэта комиков Джона Бёрда и Джона Форчуна. В скетче, показанном по телевидению в самый разгар кризиса 2008 года, комики разыгрывают сценку, высмеивая идею благородства и утонченности крупных инвесторов, которые выбирали инвестиционные фонды исходя из благозвучности их названий.

В ходе исследования ученые собрали базу данных из 17 766 хедж-фондов, названия которых они разделили на 182 смысловые категории, включающие в себя политические и экономические термины, топонимы, слова-маркеры силы и активности. Затем в поиске закономерностей эксперты сопоставили показатели доходности и количество клиентов этих фондов с их названиями. Оказалось, что чем больше у фонда клиентов, тем ниже его доходность. При этом названия большей части «популярных» хедж-фондов относились к одной смысловой категории, в которую входят слова, указывающие на экспертизу в той или иной сфере. Например, в отдельных региональных рынках или экономических отраслях. Ярким примером хедж-фондов с названиями-маяками являются Prodigy Asia & Emerging Markets Fund, Newtonian China Real Estate Limited Fund и Victoria Capital Dynamic European Fund.

«По сути, подобные названия фондов заставляют вас думать, будто люди, управляющие ими, знают, что они делают», — поясняет соавтор исследования Кристиан Тиу. По его словам, наличие таких смысловых маркеров увеличивает ежегодный приток денег в фонд примерно на $250 тыс. Между тем прибыль хедж-фондов с самыми броскими именами примерно на 1% ниже рыночных бенчмарков, утверждает экономист.

Российские финансисты, опрошенные РБК, в целом соглашаются с результатами исследования. По словам исполнительного директора УК «ФинЭкс Плюс» Владимира Крейнделя, финансовые менеджеры и инвесторы, выбирающие активы для вложений, так же, как и обычные люди, подвержены человеческому фактору. «Считается, что хедж-фонды с названиями, начинающимися на начальные буквы алфавита, более привлекательны для инвесторов», — приводит пример эксперт.

В то же время он отмечает, что популярные фонды привлекают больше денег не только за счет названия, но и благодаря более агрессивной маркетинговой стратегии. «Они больше рекламируются и чаще предлагаются корпоративным клиентам, например пенсионным фондам», — поясняет Крейндель. С ним согласен старший портфельный управляющий УК «КапиталЪ» Вадим Бит-Аврагим. По его мнению, привлекательное название — лишь малая часть масштабной маркетинговой кампании по продвижению фонда. Так что одним только громким именем большое количество инвесторов не привлечь, убежден финансист.

Имя против доходности

РБК провел простую проверку вывода американских и финских ученых. Для этого мы изучили названия самых доходных хедж-фондов за 2016 год и соотнесли их с объемами активов под управлением. По данным терминала Bloomberg, лидером по доходности в прошлом году стал хедж-фонд JP SPC5 Market Tactical Fund (объем активов — $13,86 млн), инвестирующий в глобальные рынки, его результат составил 305,29%. Следом идет фонд Bram GL Investment SPC-Sigma ($78,07 млн), который использует мультистратегии, — он показал доходность в 270,34%, а также событийный G10-Rosseau Special Situations Fund ($17 млн) с результатом в 155,96%. Замыкают пятерку лидеров фонд Global Advisors Bitcoin Investment Fund PLC (объем активов неизвестен), инвестирующий в биткоин, и вкладывающийся в суверенные облигации GMS Sovereign Plus Fund ($27,01 млн) — 124,24 и 72,49% соответственно.

Из списка лидеров по доходности целых три фонда обладают названиями, соответствующими критериям популярности, выявленным в исследовании: G10-Rosseau Special Situations Fund, Global Advisors Bitcoin Investment Fund PLC и GMS Sovereign Plus Fund. Названия этих фондов указывают на экспертизу в отдельных рынках (страны G10, глобальные рынки) и активах (биткоин, суверенный долг). По своей доходности они уступают двум лидерам почти в два—четыре раза. Тем не менее эти хедж-фонды, как и их соседи по списку, в разы обогнали динамику рыночного бенчмарка — индекса мировой индустрии хедж-фондов HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index, который в 2016 году вырос лишь на 2,5%.

При этом объем активов под управлением у фонда G10-Rosseau Special Situations Fund больше, чем у лидера по доходности, однако меньше, чем у всех остальных фондов из списка. В свою очередь, размер портфеля GMS Sovereign Plus Fund превышает показатели всех фондов, кроме одного, а по своей доходности он находится на последнем месте. Объем активов под управлением у Global Advisors Bitcoin Investment Fund PLC неизвестен. Таким образом, только один из трех фондов (GMS Sovereign Plus Fund) подтверждает вывод ученых о взаимосвязи между названием, величиной портфеля и доходностью.

Как выбрать хедж-фонд

Название — это последнее, на что стоит обращать внимание при выборе хедж-фонда, сходятся во мнении опрошенные РБК финансисты. Начинать нужно с оценки исторической динамики фонда, чтобы получить представление о качестве управления в нем, уточняет Вадим Бит-Аврагим из УК «КапиталЪ». Финансист напоминает, что хедж-фонды чаще всего ориентированы на рискованные стратегии, поэтому это инструмент для крупных квалифицированных инвесторов. «А дальше все уже зависит от предпочтений инвестора. Это может быть конкретная отрасль или региональный рынок. При этом нужно понимать, что при инвестировании в хедж-фонд инвестор может долгое время отставать от широкого рынка», — заключает Бит-Аврагим.

В свою очередь, директор инвестиционного департамента UFG Wealth Management Алексей Потапов разделяет инвесторов хедж-фондов на две категории: тех, кто хочет получить высокую доходность, и тех, кто стремится обогнать по доходности определенный бенчмарк (например, фондовый индекс). По словам Потапова, в первом случае следует отбирать фонды с помощью коэффициента Шарпа, измеряющего отношение доходности инвестиций к общему риску. Во втором — с помощью информационного коэффициента (соответствие между прогнозируемой и реальной доходностью). В обеих ситуациях чем выше результат, тем лучше. «В полученной выборке пригодных для инвестирования хедж-фондов стоит приступить к качественному анализу: приехать в офис, пообщаться с управляющими, разобраться в их прошлом. Стоит смотреть на менеджерскую команду — чем она больше, тем лучше», — продолжает объяснять Потапов.

Управляющий активами инвестиционной компании S.R. Solutions Роман Андреев добавляет, что перед инвестированием необходимо изучить декларацию фонда — там содержится его инвестиционная стратегия. По его словам, предпочтение нужно отдавать фондам с адаптивной стратегией и хорошей диверсификацией — последнее помогает уменьшить риски. При этом Андреев предостерегает от инвестиций в маленькие фонды и хедж-фонды, зарегистрированные в сомнительных юрисдикциях, они в любой момент могут исчезнуть с радаров. «Нормальный фонд будет зарегистрирован в Европе или США. И не надо вестись на высокий доход. Если доходность выше 20%, то это очень рисково. Такие фонды долго не существуют», — предупреждает эксперт.

Заместитель генерального директора по работе с частными клиентами компании «Атон» Григорий Седов считает, что критериям качества хедж-фонда соответствуют фонды под управлением компаний Millennium Partners, D.E.Shaw Group, Two Sigma Investments и RenaissanceTechnologies. «Это самые яркие примеры истинно институциональных имен», — резюмирует финансист. 

Источник: rbc.ru

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