Курс недели: почему доллар может подешеветь к выходным

Курс недели: почему доллар может подешеветь к выходным

Фото: Reuters/Pixstream

Опрошенные РБК финансисты считают, что к концу недели курс доллара по отношению к рублю укрепится всего на 0,2 п.п. В первую очередь, на валютный рынок повлияют итоги заседаний ЦБ и ФРС.

Сильнее всего на неделе с 25 по 29 июля рубль будет зависеть от действий Центробанка. К такому выводу пришли семь из десяти опрошенных РБК финансистов. В пятницу, 29 июля, состоится заседание совета директоров ЦБ, где могут принять решение по дальнейшему снижению ключевой ставки. «Однозначных ожиданий пока нет, и в этих условиях снижение ставки может оказать давление на курс», — считает главный эксперт центра экономического прогнозирования Газпромбанка Егор Сусин.

Второй важный фактор, по мнению шести аналитиков из десяти, — решение по ставке ФРС, которое будет известно 27 июля. «Дальнейшая монетарная политика США после Brexit определит среднесрочное движение доллара», — говорит замдиректора аналитического департамента «Альпари» Анна Кокорева.

Третий по значимости фактор — реакция рынка на комментарии российских властей о чрезмерном укреплении рубля. По словам профессора финансов Российской экономической школы Олега Шибанова, пока рынок отреагировал на них вяло. Однако исключать того, что ЦБ может выйти на рынок с валютными интервенциями (начать покупать валюту с рынка, как это было в середине прошлого года), не стоит, считает ведущий аналитик Промсвязьбанка Алексей Егоров. 

При этом нефть вновь становится одним из главных факторов, влияющих на рубль.«Российская валюта будет больше зависеть от динамики цен на нефть, чем в последнее время, когда рубль немного от нее «отвязался», — рассказывает старший портфельный управляющий УК «КапиталЪ» Вадим Бит-Аврагим. Причина в том, что рубль достиг фундаментально обоснованного уровня и снова стал чувствителен к колебанию нефтяных котировок. «Любое их изменение приведет к симметричному движению курса рубля», — рассказывает ведущий аналитик Егоров из Промсвязьбанка. 

Участники опроса предполагают, что к закрытию в пятницу, 29 июля, доллар ослабнет к рублю на 0,2%, до 64,6 руб.

Курс недели: почему доллар может подешеветь к выходным
 

Источник: rbc.ru

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