Курс недели: что повлияет на рубль и доллар в ближайшие пять дней

Курс недели: что повлияет на рубль и доллар в ближайшие пять дней

Фото: Bloomberg

Финансисты, опрошенные РБК, считают, что к концу этой недели доллар ослабнет на 0,4% по отношению к рублю. В пользу рубля — период дивидендных выплат, а против него — нефтяные котировки

На неделе с 18 по 22 июля позиции рубля в первую очередь будет определять статистика по нефти из США. В ней традиционно отражается количество буровых вышек и объем запасов нефти и нефтепродуктов. От них будет зависеть цена на нефть, а значит и курс рубля по отношению к мировым валютам, уверены опрошенные РБК эксперты. «Сейчас цена Brent растет, несмотря на то, что фундаментальные показатели говорят об избытке предложения: это и рекордный за несколько лет объем добычи странами ОПЕК, и рост числа активных буровых в США уже третью неделю подряд», — говорит аналитик ИК «Алор» Брокер Алексей Антонов.

Он также отмечает, что сильная, как правило, корреляция между нефтяными котировками и курсом рубля сейчас существенно ослабла. Аналитик объясняет это тем, что сейчас на рубль сильно влияют другие факторы. В первую очередь — июльское дивидендное «ралли». Именно оно, по мнению ведущего аналитика финансово-аналитической компании Conomy Дмитрия Фомина, способствует ослаблению связи между курсом рубля и динамикой сырьевого рынка. «На текущую неделю придутся закрытия реестров акционеров по бумагам крупных компаний: речь про «Газпром», «Россети», «Сургутнефтегаз», АЛРОСА и «Транснефть», — рассказывает эксперт.

Третий по значимости фактор — последствия Brexit. Рынок ждет заявлений еврочиновников об экономических последствиях выхода Британии из ЕС. «Европейская валюта находится под давлением неопределенности с перспективами евроинтеграции, — говорит старший аналитик группы исследований и прогнозирования АКРА Дмитрий Куликов. — Вероятно, любые снижающие неопределенность события укрепят евро, что отразится и на рубле».

Участники опроса предполагают, что к закрытию в пятницу, 22 июля, доллар ослабнет к рублю на 0,4%, до 63 руб.

Курс недели: что повлияет на рубль и доллар в ближайшие пять дней
 

Источник: rbc.ru

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