Карта кризисов для инвестора: как предсказать спад в экономике 44 стран

Карта кризисов для инвестора: как предсказать спад в экономике 44 стран

Фото: Lori

Кризис можно не только измерить, но и предсказать, причем в понятной каждому форме. В этом уверен создатель сервиса «Кризисометр». Стоит ли им пользоваться частным инвесторам?

«Карта кризисов», или «Барометр экономической ситуации», — так называет сервис «Кризисометр» его создатель, 26-летний выпускник РЭУ имени Плеханова Илья Филиппов. Его разработка позволяет любому пользователю независимо от знания финансового рынка понять, насколько близки к кризису экономики 44 крупнейших стран Азии, США и Европы.

Так называемый уровень кризисности оценивается по шкале от 0 до 100%, где 0% — стабильность, а 100% — разгар кризиса. И это, по словам Филиппова, важно в первую очередь для обывателей. «Обычно, чтобы получить представление об экономической ситуации, нужно собрать и проанализировать данные по безработице, ВВП, инфляции и так далее. А «Кризисометр» — это очень простой инструмент, который сразу дает понимание того, что происходит в стране», — рассказывает Филиппов. Начинающий инвестор, возможно, не догадывается о том, что происходит в Китае, который считается нашим главным экономическим партнером, приводит пример он. А благодаря «Кризисометру» он может открыть карту и сразу понять, хорошо ли и​дут дела в стране, были ли там серьезные проблемы в последнее время, отмечает Филиппов.

При этом он сам признает, что пока сервис не пользуется особой популярностью: запущенный весной 2015 года, сейчас «Кризисометр» насчитывает только 1 тыс. пользователей. «Дело в том, что мы пока вообще не занимались его продвижением», — уверяет Филиппов.

Карта кризисов для инвестора: как предсказать спад в экономике 44 стран

Как измерить кризис

Подобные прогнозы обычно составляются на основании макроэкономических показателей: данных по безработице, ВВП, инфляции, говорит Филиппов. «Кризисометр» работает иначе. Он оценивает «уровень кризисности» только на основе показателей фондового рынка. О каких именно показателях идет речь, Филиппов уточнить отказался. «Между падением фондовых индексов или изменением курса рубля и, скажем, увольнением людей есть временной промежуток. Вот в этот период можно сделать прогноз по дальнейшему развитию ситуации», — объясняет он. Именно этим и занимается «Кризисометр», поясняет он.

По такому принципу сервис отслеживает и отражает состояние экономики в 44 странах. Данные обновляются раз в сутки. Это — еще одно его отличие от макроэкономических показателей: их изменения невозможно отслеживать в ежедневном режиме, говорится на сайте «Кризисометра». Он оценивает текущий «уровень кризисности» в каждой стране в процентах, а также показывает, в какой зоне находится государство. Всего таких зон четыре: самая спокойная — та, где «уровень кризисности» составляет 0–25% (например, в Индии), самая нестабильная — где он равен 75–100% (в Нигерии или Испании). Кроме того, на сайте «Кризисометра» доступна информация за предыдущие десять лет (вот так это выглядит) и прогноз: где экономическая ситуация ухудшится, а где, наоборот, станет лучше. Сервис присваивает стране один из трех вариантов прогноза: «консервативный», «нестабильный» и «кризис». Эти показатели также формируются на основе данных фондового рынка, отмечает Филиппов.

Примечательно, что мнение участников рынка или отдельных экспертов при формировании индекса «Кризисометра» не учитывается, говорит разработчик сервиса. «Сейчас достаточно популярно изучение соцсетей — когда торговые сигналы для трейдеров и аналитиков формируются на основании того, что люди пишут в Twitter. Но мы пока не используем такого рода данные, хотя и планируем заняться этой темой в будущем», — поясняет Филиппов. В планах у создателей «Кризисометра» также выпуск мобильного приложения. Как говорит Филиппов, функции у приложения будут такими же, как и у сервиса. В App Store оно появится в ближайшее время, добавляет он.

Карта кризисов для инвестора: как предсказать спад в экономике 44 стран

Закат Европы

По оценке сервиса, самая сложная экономическая ситуация сейчас в европейских государствах: после 23 июня «нестабильный» прогноз сменился «кризисом». Текущий «уровень кризисности» варьируется от 53% в Швейцарии до 100% в Великобритании, Ирландии, Италии, Испании, Греции, Швеции и Финляндии. По США и азиатским странам, за исключением Китая, прогноз «нестабильный». А вот в России, Китае и Индии пока не ожидается сильных потрясений. Причем самая спокойная обстановка, если верить «Кризисометру», в Индии — там «индикатор кризисности» не превышает 23%, в России же его значение чуть больше 29%.

«Проблемы европейских стран очевидны. Например, есть ощущение, что регулятору не всегда удается управлять денежной системой: не работают ставки, восстановление идет очень медленно», — соглашается профессор департамента финансов НИУ ВШЭ Александр Абрамов. Вместе с тем далеко не во всех странах, которым «Кризисометр» присвоил низкий «уровень кризисности», все в порядке, продолжает он. «Например, в России или Индии проблемы внешне не так заметны, но это не значит, что их нет», — поясняет Абрамов. «Хотя жесткая монетарная политика в России работает, стабильности она не гарантирует. Курс, инфляция — все это, в общем-то, контролируется, но никто не удивится, если завтра что-то не сработает и рубль снова обвалится», — говорит он.

Карта кризисов для инвестора: как предсказать спад в экономике 44 стран

Стоит ли пользоваться сервисом?

«Кризисометр» помогает принять взвешенные финансовые решения, уверен его создатель. «Кто-то собирается путешествовать, кто-то намерен совершать крупные покупки за рубежом или инвестировать в недвижимость. Если человек при этом будет знать, что в экономике страны ожидается нестабильность, он может поменять планы», — поясняет Филиппов. Однако торговать на фондовом рынке, опираясь только на показатели «Кризисометра», он не советует: сервис предсказывает ситуацию в экономике, а не перспективы фондового рынка, поясняет он.

Руководитель управления брокерских операций ИК «Алор брокер» Антон Ванин называет «Кризисометр» интересным инструментом, но отмечает, что для серьезного отношения к нему создатель должен обеспечить прозрачность механизма расчета. Ванин также полагает, что сервис оценивает не экономический кризис в общепринятом понимании. «Кризис в реальном секторе экономики, который интересует целевую аудиторию сервиса, наступает постепенно, с распространением из финансового сектора в реальный», — поясняет он. Индекс «Кризисометра», напротив, сначала резко повышается — за один или несколько дней он растет на 50%, а затем плавно восстанавливается. «Мы видим не индекс экономического кризиса, а, скорее, индекс моментального состояния финансового сектора. Этот тезис подтверждается сходством графика «Кризисометра» с индексом волатильности российского рынка, который рассчитывает Московская биржа», — заключает Ванин.

Замначальника аналитического отдела ИФК «Солид» Азрет Гулиев тоже считает, что в некоторых случаях «Кризисометр» не дает реального представления об экономике разных стран: не всегда понятно, что именно он считает кризисом, разъясняет эксперт. «Состояние, когда ВВП Германии растет на 1,5%, можно признать кризисным явлением, хотя это и дискуссионный вопрос, но отрицательные темпы ВВП в Бразилии и России точно нельзя назвать отсутствием кризиса», — уверен он. Между тем, согласно «Кризисометру», «уровень кризисности» в России заметно меньше, чем в Германии. Однако к «Кризисометру» можно прислушиваться, если учитывать и другие данные, допускает Гулиев.

Абрамов советует следить и за другими индексами. «Стоит обращать внимание на бытовые индикаторы», — говорит он. Представление об экономической ситуации в стране могут дать индекс волатильности VIX (его еще называют индексом страха), темпы и прогнозы изменения экономического роста, перечисляет​ Абрамов.​ 

Источник: rbc.ru

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When I initially commented I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on each time a comment is added I recieve four emails with the exact same comment. There has to be a way you are able to remove me from that service? Thank you!

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Howdy! Quick question that’s entirely off topic. Do you know how to make your site mobile friendly? My website looks weird when browsing from my apple iphone. I’m trying to find a theme or plugin that might be able to fix this issue. If you have any recommendations, please share. Thanks!

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