Как северокорейская ракета изменит курс доллара к выходным

Как северокорейская ракета изменит курс доллара к выходным

Фото: Wong Maye-E / AP

На этой неделе курс доллара к рублю будут определять возросшие геополитические риски, связанные с ситуацией в Сирии и Северной Корее. Каким будет курс американской валюты к этим выходным?

Опрошенные РБК финансисты считают, что в ближайшие дни инвесторов ожидает затишье на валютном рынке. Во многих европейских странах понедельник, 17 апреля, — официальный выходной благодаря празднику Пасхи, и торги на фондовых биржах в этот день не ведутся. Соответственно, в короткую рабочую неделю рынки вряд ли будут подвержены сильным колебаниям, предполагают аналитики.

В то же время они предупреждают о присутствии определенного негативного фона, связанного с неблагоприятной геополитической обстановкой, которая сформировалась в предыдущие недели. Речь идет в первую очередь о ситуации вокруг Сирии после ракетного удара США по авиабазе правительственных войск 7 апреля. Кроме того, напряженность создают события, связанные с предполагаемым запуском ракеты Северной Кореей на прошлой неделе. Вице-президент США, республиканец Майкл Пенс прокомментировал действия Пхеньяна крайне резко, сообщив о «конце эры стратегического терпения» в отношении КНДР. По его словам, Вашингтон готов на любые меры против Северной Кореи и стране стоит отбросить всякие сомнения касательно «решимости США быть вместе с союзниками».

Нарастание конфликта между США и Северной Кореей может спровоцировать инвесторов на отказ от рискованных активов в пользу более консервативных инструментов, и это негативно скажется на российском рубле, предупреждает начальник управления продаж казначейства Абсолют Банка Владимир Борисов. Снижение напряженности, напротив, позволит рублю укрепиться.

В связи с обострением геополитической ситуации особое значение для дальнейшей динамики рубля будут иметь взаимоотношения России и США, считают финансисты. На этом фоне инвесторам стоит следить за заявлениями Кремля и Белого дома как по сирийскому конфликту, так и по вопросам сотрудничества между странами. «Если геополитические риски будут снижаться, а отношения между нашими странами не будут накаляться, это будет способствовать укреплению российской валюты», — считает аналитик ГК «Финам» Богдан Зварич.

Еще один важный фактор, который может отразиться на курсе рубля, — это вербальные интервенции со стороны российских властей. К примеру, глава Минэкономразвития Максим Орешкин неоднократно высказывался о перспективах рубля, подчеркивая, что российская валюта сильно переоценена и поэтому стоит ждать ее скорого ослабления. Главный аналитик Нордеа Банка Денис Давыдов полагает, что заявления чиновников о локальном характере укрепления рубля и его неизбежной девальвации могут продолжиться. Словесные интервенции властей будут оказывать временное давление на рубль, способствуя его ослаблению относительно доллара, резюмирует эксперт.

С учетом этих и прочих факторов участники опроса предполагают, что к закрытию торгов на Московской бирже в пятницу, 21 апреля, курс доллара останется примерно на текущем уровне и составит 56,4 руб. На прошлой неделе эксперты предсказывали 57,1 руб. за доллар и ошиблись: 14 апреля на закрытии торгов в 19:00 мск американская валюта стоила 56,2 руб.

Как северокорейская ракета изменит курс доллара к выходным
 

Источник: rbc.ru

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