Как обострение конфликта в Сирии отразится на курсе доллара

Как обострение конфликта в Сирии отразится на курсе доллара

Фото: Bassam Khabieh / Reuters

На этой неделе события в Сирии будут определять динамику курса рубля к доллару, говорят опрошенные РБК эксперты. Вырастет ли курс доллара к выходным еще сильнее?

В понедельник, 10 апреля, доллар США продолжает укрепляться: на открытии торгов на Московской бирже он прибавил 0,11% по сравнению с пятничным уровнем, достигнув отметки 57,4 руб. Это еще не предел: на динамику валютной пары доллар-рубль на этой неделе продолжит влиять геополитика, отмечают большинство опрошенных РБК финансистов.

В прошлую пятницу, 7 апреля, валютный и фондовый рынки России оказались под давлением после сообщения о ракетном ударе США по сирийской авиабазе. По итогам торговой сессии на Московской бирже в этот день рубль потерял 0,47%, закрывшись на отметке 57,25 руб./долл. Индекс ММВБ просел на 1,3%, до 2020,23 пункта. Обострение геополитической ситуации увеличивает премию за риск, поэтому часть спекулянтов может уйти с российского рынка, считает генеральный директор УК «Спутник — Управление капиталом» Александр Лосев.

«Теперь обычной разницы в процентных ставках и стабильной нефти уже недостаточно для того, чтобы продолжать односторонний carry trade на рубле», — поясняет он. Однако геополитические риски на Ближнем Востоке толкают вверх нефтяные цены (после выхода новостей о ракетной атаке баррель Brent подорожал на 2%, до $55,5), что отчасти нивелирует негативный настрой инвесторов и поддерживает рубль, рассуждает Лосев.

Эксперты сходятся во мнении, что эффект от новостей из Сирии будет недолгим: геополитический фактор продолжит влиять на валютную пару доллар-рубль максимум до середины недели. «Подобные истории с точки зрения финансовых рынков, как правило, проходят довольно быстро», — убежден глава отдела стратегий на валютном рынке Saxo Bank Джон Харди. Принципиально пока ничего не меняется: стратегия carry trade по-прежнему остается выгодной за счет высоких цен на нефть и существенной разницы в процентных ставках по рублевым и долларовым активам, а серьезных последствий для мировой стабильности недавние события в Сирии не несут, соглашается Александр Лосев.

Влияние на курс доллара также будут оказывать комментарии ФРС и макроэкономическая статистика из США — на этой неделе выйдут данные по инфляции и объему розничных продаж. Выступление главы Федрезерва Джанет Йеллен состоится в университете Мичигана в понедельник, а статистические данные будут опубликованы в четверг и пятницу. Если инфляция и производственные показатели превысят ожидания рынка, то у инвесторов появятся основания ожидать скорого поднятия ставки, что может укрепить доллар. Прогнозы по этим макроэкономическим показателям у рынка умеренные: индекс цен производителей, скорее всего, не изменится, а потребительская инфляция вырастет на 0,1%, тогда как розничные продажи, напротив, сократятся на 0,1%.

С учетом всех факторов, названных участниками опроса, курс доллара в пятницу, 14 апреля, немного снизится и составит 57,1 руб. В прошлый раз эксперты предположили, что на закрытии торгов на Московской бирже 7 апреля доллар будет стоить 56,6 руб. Но из-за событий в Сирии прогноз не оправдался: в пятницу торги закрылись на отметке 57,25 руб./долл.

Как обострение конфликта в Сирии отразится на курсе доллара
 

Источник: rbc.ru

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