Выборы президента франции ,стоит ли покупать акции европейских банков

Инвестиции ва-банк: стоит ли покупать акции европейских банков

Фото: Toby Melville / Reuters

На этой неделе выборы президента франции ,поэтому  акции европейских банков подорожали до максимального уровня с декабря 2015 года. Росту котировок способствовали итоги первого тура выборов во Франции. Однако долго ли будет продолжаться это ралли?

Результаты первого тура президентских выборов во Франции, который состоялся в минувшее воскресенье, 23 апреля, спровоцировали резкий рост акций европейских банков. С момента оглашения итогов голосования индекс банковского сектора еврозоны Euro Stoxx Banks, включающий в себя бумаги 26 крупнейших кредитных организаций, вырос на 7,66%, до 134,57 пункта. При этом на следующий день после выборов индикатор подскочил сразу на 7,5%. Сейчас он торгуется на максимальном уровне с декабря 2015 года. Для сравнения: индекс широкого рынка Stoxx Europe 600 после выборов во Франции вырос лишь на 2,8%, до 388,57 пункта.

Как отмечают опрошенные РБК эксперты, инвесторы устроили ралли в акциях банковского сектора Европы из-за снижения рисков, связанных с возможной победой евроскептиков на французских выборах. По итогам первого тура голосования фаворитом президентской гонки стал центрист Эмманюэль Макрон, набравший 23% голосов. Его главный конкурент — лидер партии «Национальный фронт» Марин Ле Пен, которая неоднократно заявляла о возможности выхода Франции из еврозоны, получила 21% голосов избирателей. «Победа Марин Ле Пен грозила бы масштабными изменениями, которые коснулись бы и банковского сектора. Этот фактор сдерживал рост акций европейских банков до голосования», — комментирует начальник департамента торговых операций ИК «Фридом Финанс» Игорь Клюшнев.

Управляющий активами УК БКС Никита Емельянов добавляет, что банковский сектор стал главным бенефициаром первого тура выборов во Франции. Помимо самих результатов голосования мощным фактором поддержки для него выступила риторика французских политиков. «Практически все кандидаты, не прошедшие во второй тур, поддержали Макрона. Сейчас оценка шансов его победы составляет примерно 70%, даже несмотря на небольшой отрыв в первом туре», — объясняет финансист. По его словам, победа Макрона означает реализацию наиболее позитивного сценария для европейского фондового рынка, поэтому повышение ее вероятности способствует росту котировок на биржевых площадках ЕС.

Фавориты рынка

Среди акций кредитных организаций, входящих в расчетную базу индекса Euro Stoxx Banks, наибольший рост показали бумаги итальянских банков UniCredit и Ubi Banca. С момента открытия торгов 24 апреля они подорожали соответственно на 14,49 и 12,39%, до €15,57 и €3,99 за штуку. За ними следуют акции германского Deutsche Bank, которые выросли в цене на 11,1%, до €17,32, и испанского Natixis — его котировки поднялись на 10,54%, до €6,4. Бумаги французского Credit Agricole подорожали на 10,26%, до €13,76, банка Societe Generale — на 9,38%, до €50,73, а германского Commerzbank — на 9,1%, до €9,07. Чуть меньше выросли котировки австрийского Raiffeisen Bank и итальянского Banco Popolare — на 8,9 и 8,76%, до €20,93 и €2,73 соответственно. Бумаги других кредитных организаций из банковского индекса еврозоны показали рост в диапазоне от 8,55 до 1,92%.

Преобладание итальянских, а не французских банков в списке акций — лидеров роста обусловлено особой уязвимостью финансового рынка Италии перед любыми событиями, грозящими целостности Евросоюза, пишут в своем обзоре аналитики Goldman Sachs. На прошлой неделе международное рейтинговое агентство Fitch даже понизило кредитный рейтинг Италии с ВВВ+ до ВВВ с прогнозом «стабильный» из-за слабости банковского сектора страны и огромного уровня государственного долга. Как только фактор риска, связанный с возможной победой Ле Пен, сошел на нет, итальянские акции показали даже более мощное ралли, чем французский рынок, отмечается в обзоре Goldman Sachs. Впрочем, учитывая, что котировки UniCredit в ожидании выборов во Франции неуклонно падали — с начала года по 24 апреля они успели снизиться на 51,43%, — их нынешняя динамика больше напоминает кратковременную восходящую коррекцию.

Стоит ли вкладываться

По мнению Игоря Клюшнева, дальнейшая динамика банковского сектора во многом будет зависеть от итогов второго тура президентских выборов во Франции, который назначен на 7 мая. Однако до этого дня акции европейских банков должны расти, считает эксперт. Это делает их хорошим вариантом для спекуляций. А вот вложения в банковский сектор на долгосрочную перспективу Клюшнев считает нецелесообразными. «В ближайший год рынки ЕС должны расти, но я не могу сказать, что банковский сектор будет драйвером роста. Учитывая программу экономического стимулирования ЕЦБ, акции банков можно покупать без особого фанатизма. Я бы не советовал держать в них больше 10% от своего портфеля», — подчеркивает финансист.

С ним соглашается старший портфельный управляющий УК «КапиталЪ» Вадим Бит-Аврагим, который отмечает, что акции европейских банков выглядят слишком дорогими. Учитывая большие объемы плохих долгов — особенно на балансе итальянских банков, — фундаментальных причин для долгосрочного роста котировок нет. Спекулянтам Бит-Аврагим советует обратить внимание в большей степени на французские банки и в меньшей — на итальянские. «Крупные банки вроде Deutsche Bank всё также остаются привлекательными», — добавляет он.

Аналитик «Открытие Брокер» Андрей Кочетков, напротив, склонен считать, что ралли в банковских акциях уже закончено — рост их котировок замедлился. По словам эксперта, ситуация с европейскими банками повторяет историю с Brexit и падением фунта стерлингов на 20% — после того как ситуация на глобальных рынках стабилизировалась, британская валюта быстро перешла к росту. Сейчас происходит то же самое — бумаги европейских банков долгое время пребывали под давлением, а после выборов показали коррекцию.

Впрочем, в этом году существует вероятность сворачивания программы стимулирования ЕЦБ, добавляет Кочетков. Это может негативно отразиться на европейском рынке, однако из-за роста доходности облигаций банки будут чувствовать себя лучше других отраслей. Инвесторам, которые рассчитывают на такой сценарий, аналитик советует дождаться, когда эйфория вокруг итогов первого тура выборов сойдет на нет, и купить акции по более привлекательным ценам, чем сейчас.

Источник: rbc.ru

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