Фактор нефти: каким будет курс доллара к концу недели

Фото: Дмитрий Серебряков / ТАСС

По мнению опрошенных РБК экспертов, на пару доллар/рубль на этой неделе будет сильнее всего влиять статистика по запасам нефти в США и окончание налогового периода в России. Каким будет курс доллара к выходным?

На текущей неделе новостной поток на рынках будет менее плотным, чем обычно, считают эксперты. В понедельник, 29 мая, в США отмечают День поминовения. Праздник посвящен памяти американских военнослужащих, погибших во всех войнах и вооруженных конфликтах, в которых страна принимала участие. Американские биржи в этот день закрыты, соответственно, торги на неделе пройдут в сокращенном режиме.

Вместе с тем на пару доллар/рубль будут по-прежнему влиять новости с нефтяного рынка. Особенно значимыми могут быть свежие данные о запасах нефти и нефтепродуктов в США, которые выйдут в среду. Как отмечает начальник отдела анализа банков и денежного рынка ИК «Велес Капитал» Юрий Кравченко, динамика добычи и запасов нефти в США играет ключевую роль в движении сырьевого и, соответственно, валютного рынков. Однако, по словам советника генерального директора «Открытие Брокер» по макроэкономике Сергея Хестанова, в последние семь недель падение запасов в США не оказывает нефти существенной поддержки. «Поэтому велика вероятность дальнейшего снижения котировок, что будет оказывать давление на рубль», — говорит эксперт.

Юрий Кравченко также отмечает, что итоги саммита ОПЕК, который прошел на прошлой неделе в Вене, разочаровали инвесторов. Они были настроены на более существенное сокращение добычи или более длительный срок соглашения. «В этих условиях баланс цены на нефть в диапазоне $50–55 за баррель (Brent) в ближайшее время может быть смещенным в сторону нижней границы, — прогнозирует Кравченко. — Это может поддержать доллар на уровне или чуть выше 57 руб».

На этой неделе российский рубль также останется без поддержки налогового периода. «Выплаты заканчиваются, соответственно, спрос на рубль падает», — комментирует директор по инвестициям компании «Универ Капитал» Дмитрий Александров. Последние крупные выплаты (налог на прибыль организаций) в размере 220 млрд руб. пришлись на понедельник, 29 мая. Соответственно, далее, в течение недели, российская валюта может незначительно ослабнуть.

С учетом перечисленных и прочих факторов участники опроса предполагают, что к закрытию торгов на Московской бирже в пятницу, 2 июня, курс доллара составит 57,2 руб. На прошлой неделе эксперты предсказывали 57 руб. за доллар и ошиблись: 26 мая на закрытии торгов в 19:00 мск американская валюта стоила 56,6 руб.

 

Источник: rbc.ru

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