ЕС против США: в чей рынок лучше инвестировать в 2017 году

ЕС против США: в чей рынок лучше инвестировать в 2017 году

Фото: STEPHANIE KEITH/GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP

В 2017 году европейский фондовый индекс Stoxx Europe 600 может в два раза обогнать по доходности американский S&P 500, прогнозирует Goldman Sachs. Стоит ли верить этому прогнозу и в какие европейские активы вкладывать?

В этом году европейский фондовый рынок впервые за пять лет обгонит биржевые площадки США по темпу притока инвестиций и доходности активов, прогнозирует в своем обзоре управляющий директор по портфельным стратегиям Goldman Sachs Кристиан Мюллер-Глиссман. Вложения в сводный европейский индекс Stoxx Europe 600 в 2017 году могут принести инвестору доходность в 8% годовых в евро (за счет роста котировок и выплаты дивидендов), тогда как американский индекс S&P 500 сможет обеспечить только 4% годовых в долларах, считает аналитик. Преимущество, которое европейские акции могут получить в 2017 году, Goldman Sachs связывает с неопределенностью в экономике США, вынуждающей глобальных инвесторов искать новые, более предсказуемые рынки. По оценкам инвестбанка, в этом году приток инвестиций в Европу может увеличиться на 9–15%.

Как отмечает Мюллер-Глиссман, последние три месяца американские индексы показывали опережающий рост в связи с избранием Дональда Трампа президентом США. В расчете на скорое снижение налогов и рост бюджетных расходов, предусмотренных в предвыборной программе Трампа, инвесторы устроили ралли на фондовом рынке. В конце января индексы Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 и NASDAQ достигли исторических максимумов. Однако на днях стали снижаться впервые с начала года. В дальнейшем, по мере снижения оптимизма инвесторов в отношении политики Трампа, рост фондовых индикаторов может замедлиться еще.

Между тем продолжающееся укрепление доллара США и ослабление евро окажут дополнительную поддержку европейским экспортерам, что отразится на котировках их акций, подчеркивает аналитик Goldman Sachs. В результате, по прогнозу инвестбанка, к концу 2017 года индекс Stoxx Europe 600 пробьет отметку 380 пунктов — это на 4,8% больше, чем по состоянию на 2 февраля (362,56 пункта). Индексу S&P 500 инвестбанк предрекает рост всего на 0,9% от текущего уровня (2279,55 пункта), до 2300 пунктов. В соответствии с этим прогнозом Goldman Sachs увеличил в своем портфеле долю европейских акций и уменьшил американских акций на горизонте в 12 месяцев. Правда, их соотношение в инвестпортфеле банка не раскрывается.

Доводы «за»

Инвестиции в европейские акции действительно стали популярной стратегией в наступившем году: ее рекомендуют своим клиентам не только Goldman Sachs, но и другие инвестиционные банки — J.P. Morgan Chase и UBS, говорит ведущий стратег «Атон» Алексей Каминский. Он отмечает увеличение интереса к европейскому фондовому рынку и среди состоятельных клиентов ИК «Атон», правда, не называя конкретных цифр. По мнению Каминского, индекс Stoxx Europe 600 имеет все шансы обогнать по доходности американский рынок, но вовсе не из-за оттока капитала из США. Напротив, в стране ожидается приток средств американских корпораций, которые сейчас хранят в офшорах более $2 трлн. Этому будет способствовать обещанное Трампом снижение налогов на прибыль и на репатриацию капитала. По мнению Каминского, ускорение европейского рынка будет обусловлено двумя факторами: относительной дешевизной активов и улучшением экономической ситуации в Евросоюзе. В 2016 году ВВП 19 государств, входящих в еврозону, увеличился на 1,7%, а у всего ЕС — на 1,9%, тогда как американская экономика выросла лишь на 1,6%. Это первый случай с 2008 года, когда страны еврозоны показали более высокие темпы экономического роста, чем США, подчеркивает эксперт.

Аналитик «Открытие Брокер» Андрей Кочетков также прогнозирует временный период оживления в еврозоне на фоне улучшения макроэкономических показателей. «Поскольку европейские рынки отставали от американского, а по степени рискованности они вполне сравнимы, то в ближайшие один-два года можно ожидать возвращения инвесторов», — поясняет он. По оценкам Кочеткова, прибыль европейских корпораций, входящих в индекс широкого рынка, в 2017 году увеличится на 14%, а в 2018 году — на 10%, что положительно скажется на котировках их акций. Начальник управления продаж брокера «Ай Ти Инвест» Андрей Хохрин добавляет, что в настоящее время индекс S&P 500 торгуется с премией к Stoxx Europe 600 в размере от 20 до 50%. Это говорит о серьезном потенциале роста у европейского индикатора, полагает эксперт.

Доводы «против»

Впрочем, несмотря на все плюсы, скептиков среди опрошенных РБК экспертов не меньше, чем сторонников инвестиций в европейские активы. Из шести брокеров, входящих в десятку крупнейших в России по числу активных клиентов, только два отметили рост инвестиций в европейские бумаги со стороны клиентов — ИК «Атон» и «Открытие Брокер». Причина — риски, связанные с европейским рынком. Главный из них заключается в политической неопределенности из-за усиления позиций евроскептиков. «В этом году в Европе предстоят выборы в ведущих странах блока. При этом даже федеральному канцлеру Германии Ангеле Меркель не гарантирована победа», — комментирует руководитель отдела информации и анализа мировых рынков ГК «Финам» Михаил Аристакесян.

Начальник отдела анализа финансовых рынков «КИТ Финанс Брокер» Василий Копосов добавляет, что инвестору в европейские бумаги нужно учитывать и монетарные риски: рано или поздно Европейскому центробанку придется сворачивать программу количественного смягчения. «Все чаще звучат мнения о том, что во втором полугодии ЕЦБ постепенно начнет сокращать стимулирование экономики. Это уменьшит приток дешевой ликвидности и спровоцирует волатильность на рынке номинированного в евро долга, доходности на котором близки к историческим минимумам», — поясняет Копосов. Он также отмечает, что у аналитиков до сих пор нет консенсуса в отношении последствий выхода Великобритании из ЕС (Brexit) и проблем банковского сектора Европы. «Потенциальных причин для коррекции акций в Европе не меньше, чем в США, а вероятности реализации этих событий, с нашей точки зрения, сопоставимы», — резюмирует он.

Михаил Аристакесян из ГК «Финам» в свою очередь подчеркивает, что, даже если индекс Stoxx Europe 600 покажет доходность в 8%, вложения в S&P 500 все равно будут выгоднее, так как на горизонте 12 месяцев евро может ослабнуть к доллару до паритета. Правда, базовый прогноз «Финама» по росту индекса S&P 500 в 2017 году — все 7%, а не 4%, как у Goldman Sachs.

Куда инвестировать

Если все же ориентироваться на оценки Goldman Sachs и поставить на инвестиции в европейские активы, то наиболее очевидный выбор для инвестора — акции германских корпораций, говорит Василий Копосов из «КИТ Финанс Брокер». Германия остается сильнейшей экономикой еврозоны — в 2016 году она выросла на 2%. В январе индекс деловой активности в германской промышленности PMI достиг 56,5 пункта, что служит позитивным сигналом для инвесторов. Копосов предлагает им сформировать портфель из акций, входящих в базу расчета немецкого фондового индекса DAX, или приобрести бумаги биржевых фондов ETF, отслеживающих его динамику, например EWG (iShares MSCI Germany ETF). За прошлый год индикатор DAX вырос на 11,5%, а с начала 2017 года — на 0,25%.

Андрей Кочетков из «Открытие Брокер» также советует инвесторам обратить внимание на германские компании — технологический концерн Siemens и автогиганты BMW, VW и Daimler. В 2016 году котировки Siemens выросли на 37%, тогда как акции BMW, VW и Daimler просели на 3,8, 0,8 и 4% соответственно. Покупать акции Siemens можно с прицелом на их дальнейший рост, а бумаги автостроительных компаний — в расчете на отскок. Кочетков также считает, что неплохой инвестицией могут стать бумаги Deutsche Bank. «Если он сможет разгрести ворох проблем с судебными властями США, то рост стоимости этой бумаги будет опережать рынок», — поясняет он.

Каминский из ИК «Атон» отмечает, что в случае с инвестициями в европейский рынок уместнее говорить о широких секторах, а не об отдельных бумагах. По его мнению, одними из главных бенефициаров ускорения темпов экономического роста в ЕС станут банки и страховые компании. «Наша рекомендация — где возможно, участвовать через секторные ETF. Это диверсифицирует индивидуальные и географические риски, при этом позволяя инвестировать в разные активы одного сектора», — сообщает Каминский. В качестве примера он приводит банковский фонд Lyxor UCITS ETF Stoxx Europe 600 Banks (BNK FP). 

Источник: rbc.ru

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