Сигаретам грозит новое подорожание из-за борьбы с контрафактом

Сигаретам грозит новое подорожание из-за борьбы с контрафактом

Какие реформы табачного рынка приготовило правительство в этом году

Сигаретам грозит новое подорожание из-за борьбы с контрафактом

Как любил шутить Марк Твен, бросить курить очень просто. «Я сам сто раз это делал», — остроумно подмечал американский драматург. В России борьба с курением табака, как, впрочем, и с другими вредными привычками, стала более чем принципиальной позицией. Ажиотаж вокруг пропаганды здорового образа жизни в нашей стране весьма велик. Тем не менее примерно 25 млн россиян (30% взрослого населения) продолжают оставаться курильщиками. Многие пытаются экономить на «никотиновых палочках», но полностью не способны отказаться от пристрастия к табаку. По словам главы Комитета Совета Федерации по бюджету и финансовым рынкам Сергея Рябухина, из-за роста цен на сигареты россияне вынуждены самостоятельно выращивать никотиновую культуру. «Когда приезжаешь в регион, с ужасом узнаешь, что народ перешел на махорку», — отмечает Рябухин.

Впрочем, все-таки случаи полного перехода с покупного табака на домашний самосад пока не приобрели массового распространения. Чаще население обращается к нелегальному рынку, который постоянно растет. И несмотря на то что его доля пока не критична для экономики России в целом, в денежном выражении продажа левых сигарет приносит мошенникам десятки миллиардов рублей в год. Чиновники предлагают несколько способов борьбы с «серым» табачным рынком. У каждой из идей существуют союзники, полагающие, что нелегальный рынок табака можно устранить, и противники, уверенные, что введение любых новых инструментов контроля приведет к резкому удорожанию сигарет.

По ценам duty free

В 2017 году в России было продано примерно 580 млн нелегальных пачек сигарет. Чтобы представить наглядно — это 1160 полностью загруженных автомобильных фур. По оценке компании-измерителя Nielsen, это составляет около 4,5% всего российского табачного рынка.

Каждая третья нелегальная пачка эмигрирует в нашу страну из Белоруссии, которая остается крупнейшим поставщиком дешевых нелегальных сигарет на российский рынок. В среднем белорусские сигареты продаются по 50–55 рублей за пачку.

Основным каналом сбыта становятся различные нестационарные форматы уличной торговли — лотки у остановок общественного транспорта и станций метро, мобильные точки, автомобили и так далее. Возможно, в крупных городах подобные прецеденты встретишь не часто, но на периферии они распространены повсеместно. Значительный рост объемов продаж через объекты стихийной торговли обусловлен усилением контроля над традиционной розницей. Новые жесткие штрафные меры (отсутствие акцизных марок на пачках может обернуться нарушителю штрафом в 1 млн рублей или лишением свободы до 6 лет) вынуждают поставщиков нелегальной продукции искать альтернативные каналы продаж с минимальными издержками и рисками, а также с удобной для потребителя локацией на улицах, ярмарках и в других местах с высоким уровнем трафика.

Особенностью последних лет стало появление в числе поставщиков нелегальных сигарет табачных фабрик из Сербии и Объединенных Арабских Эмиратов. Сербская продукция доминирует в российских регионах, граничащих с Казахстаном. По оценкам Nielsen, каждая пятнадцатая нелегальная пачка в масштабах нашей страны — это сербская марка FAST. Ее цена на уличных развалах сибирских городов в среднем составляет 45 рублей за пачку.

Официально сигареты сербской фабрики закупаются несколькими местными операторами для продажи в магазинах беспошлинной торговли в Киргизии и нелегально транспортируются в Россию. За последние два года объемы закупок сигарет для магазинов duty free в Киргизии выросли в 500 раз. Нетрудно догадаться, что в дальнейшем дополнительные объемы оседают на российском рынке.

Сигареты нескольких арабских фабрик набирают все большую популярность в южной и центральной частях России. Первые случаи продаж арабских сигарет были отмечены в декабре 2016 года. За прошедшее время география их присутствия на российском рынке увеличилась до 10 регионов.

О растущем спросе на арабские сигареты (на рынках они предлагаются по цене 40–55 рублей за пачку) говорит и открытие новых маршрутов поставок нелегальных сигарет в Россию. Помимо порта в Новороссийске сейчас их везут еще по двум направлениям: через польско-белорусскую границу и из Казахстана.

Сигаретам грозит новое подорожание из-за борьбы с контрафактом

Тотальная перепродажа

Несмотря на то что доля контрафакта в масштабах российской экономики относительно невелика, все равно — это десятки миллиардов рублей фактически криминального дохода. Присутствие контрабандных сигарет из соседних стран объясняется несколькими факторами. Во-первых, вступившими в силу с 1 января 2015 года поправками в УК и КоАП, ужесточающими ответственность за подделку товарных знаков и использование поддельных акцизных марок. Во-вторых, очевидной экономической эффективностью контрабанды перед организацией контрафактных производств внутри России. Последнее требует значительных человеческих и финансовых инвестиций, в то время как вариант купить в одной стране подешевле и продать в России подороже гарантирует не чистым на руку бизнесменам быструю и существенную прибыль. В 2017 году из-за увеличения объемов нелегальной торговли российский бюджет потерял около 29 млрд рублей.

Интерес к нелегальным сигаретам определяется их более низкой стоимостью в сравнении с легальной продукцией российских фабрик. К примеру, пачка какого-либо зарубежного табачного бренда, но российского производства обходится курильщику примерно в 125 рублей. В Белоруссии, в переводе на российские рубли, она будет стоить менее 80 рублей, а в Казахстане — менее 60 рублей.

Причина такого разрыва кроется в разнице в ставках акциза на табачную продукцию в России и в странах — партнерах по Евразийскому экономическому союзу (ЕАЭС). Разница настолько значительна, что даже с учетом логистических затрат позволяет продавать сигареты из входящих в состав организации стран дешевле их российских аналогов.

Чипы разгонят инфляцию?

Одним из новых способов борьбы с контрабандой и нелегальной табачной продукцией обещает стать обязательная цифровая маркировка. Эта инициатива исходит со стороны Минфина и поддержана рядом других ведомств. Как полагают сторонники маркировки пачек специальными штрихкодами, такой инструмент позволит отслеживать путь сигарет от конвейера до потребителя. Первый эксперимент предполагается провести уже в первой половине 2018 года, а с 2019-го власти собираются перейти на масштабное внедрение электронной маркировки.

«Введение обязательной цифровой маркировки станет инструментом контроля над распространением нелегальных сигарет, — полагает вице-президент одной из крупнейших компаний — производителей табачной продукции в России Сергей Головко. — В отличие от иных способов, таких как бумажные марки ЕГАИС и радиочастотные метки, цифровая маркировка способна обеспечить легкое прослеживание любых упаковок табачной продукции от производства до точки розничных продаж».

Сначала планировалось маркировать пачки сигарет электронными чипами. Однако эту идею поддержали далеко не все. Как подсчитали специалисты, реализация такой программы накладно отразилась бы на карманах курильщиков. Стоимость одного чипа доходит до 9 рублей. Учитывая доставку, технологические и человеческие ресурсы, его установка могла бы вызвать рост цен на табачную продукцию на 10–15%.

Поэтому предпочтение отдали штрихкодам. Каждый из них уникален, что исключает возможность его подделки, а агрегация данных кодов с иными средствами индивидуализации транспортных упаковок позволяет обеспечить сквозное прослеживание каждой пачки. С помощью бесплатного мобильного приложения потребители и правоохранительные органы могут в режиме реального времени получить подтверждение легальности сигарет. В случае попытки скопировать штрихкод мобильное приложение выдаст информацию, что код уже был использован или погашен.

Крупные табачные компании уверяют, что эта система адаптирована под технологические условия и скорости сигаретного производства. Она работает на базовом оборудовании, установленном на табачных фабриках, и ее внедрение не повлечет резкого роста стоимости сигарет в рознице. Впрочем, небольшие производители пока не уверены, что эта система не отразится на себестоимости табачной продукции.

Сигаретам грозит новое подорожание из-за борьбы с контрафактом

Минимальная атака на цены

Существует в распоряжении чиновников еще один инструмент, который должен позволить справиться с наплывом нелегальной продукции. Это введение минимальной стоимости табачных изделий. Такое предложение исходит, в частности, от Общественной палаты РФ. Федеральная антимонопольная служба заявила, что готова поддержать эту инициативу.

Идея заключается в том, чтобы законодательно обязать магазины отпускать сигареты по цене не ниже 62–65 рублей за пачку. Если по примеру водки установить механизм единой минимальной цены и на табачную продукцию, то оборот нелегальных сигарет, поступающих в Россию из соседних стран, окажется затруднительным, считают инициаторы предложения.

Впрочем, эта идея также подвергается критике. По словам директора по правовым вопросам и внешнекорпоративным связям другой табачной компании Яны Гуськовой, минимальная цена может стать индикатором легальности и нелегальности: если пачка стоит меньше установленного уровня — это контрабанда или контрафакт. «Вместе с тем важно понимать, что минимальная цена — лишь индикатор, а не панацея от теневого рынка. Для борьбы с нелегальной торговлей необходимо устранять ее причины: корректировать дисбаланс цен и акцизов в странах ЕАЭС, не допускать резкого роста табачных налогов в России, совершенствовать правоприменительную практику, усиливать меры ответственности за занятие нелегальной деятельностью в сфере оборота табачных изделий», — отмечает собеседник «МК».

Гендиректор ассоциации «Табакпром» Андрей Межонов считает, что механизм минимальных цен не соответствует задачам, которые декларируют его инициаторы, и может стать инструментом конкурентной борьбы на табачном рынке. «Все определяется ценовой линейкой продукции. Одни компании находятся в более высоком ценовом сегменте, другие — в более низком. Это может стать инструментом для сокращения представителей низкого ценового сегмента, и прежде всего — отечественных производителей», — считает эксперт.

Впрочем, цены на табачную продукцию могут вырасти и по другим причинам. По оценке члена Координационного совета по борьбе против табака при Минздраве Виктора Зыкова, в этом году сигареты станут дороже в среднем на 5 рублей. Это связано с ростом акцизов на табак на 10% в течение года (первое повышение произошло 1 января, а второе намечено на 1 июля).

В целом в странах СНГ к 2022 году доля акциза в розничной цене сигарет может вырасти до 70%, отмечает Зыков. «Это рекомендация Всемирной организации здравоохранения», — отмечает эксперт. В 2018 году, по его оценке, среднестатистическая пачка будет стоить около 100 рублей (сейчас — 93 рубля).

Между тем цены на табачные изделия могут вырасти гораздо больше. Не исключено, что Минздрав вернется к идее, которую он озвучивал в начале 2010-х годов. Тогда представители здравоохранения утверждали, что если в России пачка будет стоить не менее 300 рублей, то потребление табака сразу сократится на 10–15%. В кулуарах правительства чиновники время от времени снова поднимают этот вопрос. Поэтому есть все основания опасаться, что рост стоимости сигарет втрое — не окажется чем-то экстраординарным.

Получайте короткую вечернюю рассылку лучшего в «МК» — подпишитесь на наш Telegram.

Источник: mk.ru

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