Минфин уронит рубль по новой схеме

Минфин уронит рубль по новой схеме

Ведомство обновляет рекорды валютных интервенций

Минфин уронит рубль по новой схеме
фото: Алексей Меринов

В январе ведомство приобретет на биржах долларов и евро на 257 млрд рублей. Месяцем ранее размер интервенций был на 53 млрд меньше. Сам собой рост объема закупок валюты вряд ли нанесет урон курсу рубля, но в совокупности с новыми антироссийскими санкциями, которые Вашингтон грозит объявить до февраля, он способен обратить вспять процесс укрепления российских денежных знаков.

Объем ежедневных валютных интервенций, которые Минфин намерен проводить с 15 января по 6 февраля этого года, будет составлять не менее 15,6 млрд рублей в день.

«Деревянный» в 2014 году отпустили в «свободное плавание» — государство перестало выручать рубль интервенциями, оставив его на растерзание биржевым спекулянтам. Многие предрекали, что Кремль таким образом обрекает нацвалюту на кошмарную нервотрепку — интерес к долларам со стороны рядовых граждан всегда выглядел в глазах чиновников неоправданным.

Однако такой расчет оказался преждевременным. Стоимость «деревянного» не только восстановилась после затяжного провала конца 2015-го — начала 2016 года, но и начала набирать дополнительные баллы.

«Целью, которую сейчас ставят перед собой представители госвласти, является увеличение нефтегазовых доходов, когда котировки «черного золота» будут ниже определяемых в прогнозе уровней», — отмечает ведущий аналитик AMarkets Артем Деев.

«В 2018 году Минфин закупит валюту для ФНБ на 2 трлн рублей. Это дополнительные нефтегазовые доходы при ценах на нефть $54–55. При $60 за баррель объем закупок валюты составит 2,8 трлн руб — гораздо больше, чем государство собирается отложить до «лучших времен», когда баррель превысит $60», — отмечает наш эксперт.

Правда, пока, даже несмотря на рост сырьевых позиций, Минфин занимается закупками валюты, пользуясь снижением курса доллара. Это действительно благоприятный момент. Возможно, это сигнал для спекулятивных валютных бумаг, чтобы потом, после официальной информации об их движении на рынке, они смогли набрать как повышающие, так и понижающие тренды.

«Интересы рядовых потребителей, как всегда, окажутся на втором плане», — полагает эксперт.

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Источник: mk.ru

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