«Болезнь» президента Путина лечится за 200 миллиардов рублей в год

«Болезнь» президента Путина лечится за 200 миллиардов рублей в год

Эксперты считают, что в переводе России на цифровую экономику кроется политический интерес

«Болезнь» президента Путина лечится за 200 миллиардов рублей в год

История «болезни»

В чем суть этой самой цифровой экономики, понимает пока только узкий круг специалистов, но отнюдь не широкая общественность. Из выступлений президента и чиновников на сей счет ясно только одно: внедрение такой экономики стране жизненно необходимо и является ни много ни мало вопросом национальной безопасности.

Между тем цифровой экономике как понятию уже более 20 лет. Этот термин ввел в оборот в 1995 году американский ученый из Массачусетского университета Николас Негропонте. В последние годы термин прочно вошел в обиход экономистов, политиков, бизнесменов, и теперь им обозначают новую модель развития глобальной экономической системы. Тем не менее содержание понятия «цифровая экономика» остается размытым. В обывательском понимании оно означает все то, что связано с распространением Интернета, мобильной связью, быстрым доступом к информации, электронной коммерцией, а также с различными дистанционными услугами и сервисами. К примеру, оплата покупок банковской картой, приобретение товаров в интернет-магазинах и даже бесплатный вай-фай в метро — это все цифровая экономика.

«С тех пор как появился термин «цифровая экономика», прошло уже две волны цифровизации, а сегодня мы наблюдаем третью. Первая волна была связана с компьютерными технологиями и использованием вычислительной техники, вторая — с возникновением и распространением Интернета, а третья ознаменовалась переходом к так называемому Интернету вещей, когда управляемость всеми технологичными процессами качественно изменилась. Эту волну можно назвать даже не информационной, а интеллектуальной революцией», — поясняет в беседе с «МК» вице-президент Центра стратегических разработок Владимир Княгинин.

В чем же важность перехода России к цифровой экономике? По словам президента Владимира Путина, ее внедрение — вопрос независимости РФ в мировой экономической системе: «Это не отдельная отрасль экономики, а новый уклад жизни и основа для развития системы госуправления, бизнеса, социальной сферы». С ним солидарны и эксперты. Как отмечает Владимир Княгинин, сегодня все ведущие страны осознают, что цифровая экономика — необходимая составляющая глобального развития. «Это понимание было продемонстрировано еще в конце 2015 года на съезде G20 в Анкаре. На заседании была принята резолюция по развитию цифровой экономики — то есть использования информации и знаний как ключевого фактора в производстве. Для России, которая является членом «большой двадцатки», вопрос участия в цифровой экономике — это вопрос глобальной конкурентоспособности и потенциального первенства во многих технологических секторах», — полагает собеседник «МК».

Цифровизация по-русски

Из свежих данных международной консалтинговой компании McKinsey следует, что объем цифровой экономики России с 2011 по 2015 год увеличился на 59% и растет в 9 раз быстрее, чем ВВП страны. Сегодня цифровая экономика формирует 2,8% ВВП страны. Для сравнения: в Китае ее объем составляет 6,9% ВВП, в США — 5,4%, в Индии — также 5,4%. Расти явно есть куда. В то же время Россия занимает первое место в Европе и шестое в мире по количеству интернет-пользователей. А по подсчетам Российской ассоциации электронных коммуникаций (РАЭК), к 2020 году число пользователей Интернета в стране составит 86 млн человек.

Что же входит в эти 2,8% ВВП? В РАЭК цифровую экономику России характеризуют так: это те сегменты рынка, где заработок достигается с помощью цифровых услуг. Аналитики ассоциации выделили восемь таких сегментов, которых они назвали «хабами». Первый — государство и общество, то есть законы, которые регулируют Интернет. Сейчас на рассмотрении находится 36 законопроектов, из них отклонено пять и принято восемь, в том числе беспрецедентный «пакет Яровой». Второй хаб — рынок маркетинга и рекламы объемом 136 млрд рублей. Третья составляющая — это финансы и электронная коммерция, объем которой оценивается в 1,2 трлн рублей, а аудитория — в 36% интернет-пользователей. Четвертый хаб — инфраструктура и связь, этот рынок сегодня оценивается в 2 трлн рублей. Сюда же входит и мобильная экономика, темпы роста которой прогнозируются на уровне 10,7% в год. В 63 млрд рублей оценивается рынок медиа и развлечений — еще один «кусок» отечественной цифровой экономики. Эту область формируют цифровой контент, игры, социальные медиа, электронные книги. По данным РАЭК, в России треть компаний сталкивались с кибератаками, поэтому для информационной безопасности компаниям нужно держать наготове специалистов в этой области. Таким образом, кибербезопасность становится шестым хабом цифровой экономики. Седьмой сегмент — это образование и кадры, поскольку развитие IT‑технологий подразумевает обучение новых специалистов, к 2020 году число занятых в этой сфере должно составить 2,3 млн человек. Наконец, восьмой сегмент — это стартапы и рынок слияний и поглощений.

В РАЭК формулируют два сценария перехода страны на цифровые рельсы: первый — полноценное интегрирование в соответствующую мировую экономику, второй — консервативное развитие отдельных хабов. Переход к цифровой экономике для России имеет важное значение еще и в том смысле, что он позволит снизить зависимость от нефтяных доходов, полагает шеф-аналитик ГК «ТелеТрейд» Петр Пушкарев. «Полностью выходить из роли ведущей сырьевой державы России не требуется, но произвести диверсификацию экономики, то есть стать поставщиком полноценных технологичных программных ресурсов, совершенно необходимо, чтобы не зависеть и дальше критически от цен на нефть», — отмечает эксперт.

«Болезнь» президента Путина лечится за 200 миллиардов рублей в год

Программа перехода

На июльском заседании Совета при Президенте РФ по стратегическому развитию и приоритетным проектам правительство, хотя и с опозданием в месяц (президент поручал подготовить документ к 1 июня 2017 года), но представило программу «Цифровая экономика России», реализация которой рассчитана на 7 лет. Программа состоит из восьми направлений: законодательная и регуляторная среда, кадры и образование, научные исследования и разработки, информационная инфраструктура, информационная безопасность, государственное управление, «умный город» и цифровое здравоохранение. Как отметил глава Минкомсвязи Николай Никифоров (именно его ведомство стало главным разработчиком программы), идея состоит в том, чтобы создать в России определенный набор условий для запуска и ускорения цифровизации привычного жизненного и экономического уклада. Министр считает, что сегодня мы наблюдаем «технологическую гонку», ведь еще пять лет назад не существовало смартфонов, а 20 лет назад мобильная связь и Интернет были диковинкой.

В программе заложены и конкретные цели и задачи. Например, к концу срока ее реализации доля иностранного софта, закупаемого госкомпаниями, должна снизиться до 10%. Предполагается, что к 2024 году 97% российских домохозяйств будут иметь широкополосный доступ в Интернет со скоростью не менее 100 МБит/с, а во всех городах-миллионниках распространится мобильный Интернет 5G. Также к моменту окончания программы российские вузы обязаны будут выпускать по 120 тыс. IT‑специалистов в год. В итоге к 2025 году цифровизация экономики России позволит увеличить ВВП страны на 4,1–8,9 трлн рублей.

По убеждению Николая Никифорова, для реализации всех этих задумок потребуется 100 млрд ежегодно. Однако президент, в целом одобривший программу, посчитал нужным удвоить средства. Поступать они будут из специального фонда цифровой экономики, а значительная часть этих денег уже заложена в бюджете.

Петр Пушкарев надеется, что вложенные в цифровую экономику государственные инвестиции потянут за собой на порядок больше частных денег компаний — как российских, так и иностранных. При этом, по замыслу правительства, траты должны окупиться за счет более высокой производительности труда, развития внутри регионов мощных высокотехнологических кластеров по производству интеллектуального продукта с «кратной» добавленной стоимостью, а также за счет притока иностранных инвестиций, которые как раз можно будет вновь привлечь новыми разработками и технологиями, отмечает аналитик «Алор Брокер» Кирилл Яковенко. «По идее, в РФ будут созданы очаговые «силиконовые долины», которые через 10–15 лет будут работать на удвоение экономических показателей. В этом есть рациональная мысль: сохранение старой модели не может повернуть процессы в нашей экономике, которая обречена развиваться в рамках колебаний цены на нефть, а отсюда все проблемы слабого и сильного рубля и непопулярных социальных реформ», — добавляет эксперт.

«Внедрение цифровой экономики позволит оптимизировать расходы в реальном секторе производства, — считает Владимир Княгинин. — Например, подсчитано, что в машиностроении внедрение новых технологий дает 20–30% экономии на ремонте и обслуживании оборудования за счет удаленного мониторинга проблем и возможности их быстрого устранения».

Не получится ли «как всегда»?

Все это звучит весьма духоподъемно, и создается полное ощущение того, что власти в лице цифровой экономики наконец нашли долгожданный драйвер роста для России вместо безнадежно упавшей три года назад нефти. Но у сторонних наблюдателей невольно возникают сомнения в реализации наполеоновских планов правительства. И главный из них: откуда брать немалые средства, исчисляемые сотнями миллиардов рублей в год, в условиях, когда «денег нет, но вы держитесь»? Конечно, можно уповать на частные инвестиции, как, например, это случилось в секторе развития мобильной связи. Но эксперты отмечают, что только на спонсоров-бизнесменов цифровой экономике рассчитывать не приходится. «В любом случае из федерального бюджета придется финансировать изменения в сфере образования, социального сектора и перестройку госуправления», — полагает Княгинин.

В связи с этим некоторые эксперты высказывают мнение, что в провозглашенной Владимиром Путиным цифровизации страны ключевую роль играет политический интерес действующего президента, который, вероятно, будет баллотироваться на следующий срок, а планы по выводу страны в мировые лидеры по «цифре» могут оказаться привлекательными для существенной части «продвинутого» в технологическом смысле электората. Подобный пример в недавнем прошлом можно найти. Экс-президент Дмитрий Медведев шел на выборы 2008 года под лозунгом «модернизации», а его образ в глазах избирателей ассоциировался с инновациями и высокими технологиями. В 2010 году по его инициативе даже был запущен масштабный инновационный проект — исследовательский центр «Сколково», в который государство вложило огромные средства: десятки миллиардов рублей. Только вот технологического чуда не получилось: вложенные деньги не дают результатов, а то и вовсе выводятся в офшоры — об этом сообщалось в 2016 году в отчете Счетной палаты по деятельности «Сколково».

Кто может гарантировать, что с новой программой цифровой экономики не получится так же? Спорить с тем, что России нужно стремиться шагать в ногу со временем, нет смысла, но рассчитывать на то, что за 5–7 лет нам удастся выбиться в лидеры в той сфере, где мы объективно намного отстаем от лучших мировых стандартов, не приходится. По словам зам. директора Института мировой экономики и международных отношений РАН Евгения Гонтмахера, сегодня Россия нуждается в первую очередь в качественном улучшении уровня жизни населения, а не в реализации модных экономических проектов. Он считает, что если цифровизация и запустится, то рискует закончиться тогда, когда придет в сферу госаппарата: принципиально не изменится ни работа судов, ни органов правопорядка, ни других госструктур. И никакие роботы тут нам не помогут.

Источник: mk.ru

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